I attended yesterdays AGM and like many other shareholders in attendance and many that witnessed the recent roadshows interstate, I came away from the AGM extremely optimistic. Having held for almost 6 years and been through all the ups and downs, I honestly believe the company is in the strongest position it has been since I started as a shareholder in Feb 2009. I too have lost capitol on the options as well as several million shares evaporated through the consolidation. As much as that is a bitter pill to swallow, that cannot be changed and what is done is done and these are the risks that we all understand and undertake when investing in the share market, especially specs stocks. I am sure there is not one poster that has not got a hard luck story or grievance since purchasing CTP, however rest assured that the future has never looked clearer and I am confident of two things.
1. The tide will turn for CTP 2. The current share price does not reflect what is going on behind the scenes and the efforts that the company’s employees and directors are making to make this a success and a profitable investment for all shareholders, Mums & Dads included.
If you do not believe this, then it is probably a wise idea to save yourself any further stress and sell out and take a loss. The small minded negativity is not helping anyone and especially not the share price. When uneducated people spruke that we have to many staff and the hierarchy are getting paid to much, that is a signal for me to put you on ignore, as that is an assumption that you have made and it to me is just highlighting what you actually don’t know and that your opinion to me is not appreciated and accusations not justified or truthful.
We all must understand that at the other end of these posts and behind the computer screen we do not know the person that is posting, their motives and what their intentions are. They may have their own agenda which is not the same vision you share. Who knows, you could be reading or even arguing with a lonely 12 year old that is just trying to cause a stir.
Enough of the negatives, but I thought that it was important that there are a great deal (More than ever now on HotCopper) with disrespectful and uneducated views on this stock. Lets take back the power and place these people on ignore. That will limit their influence and we can get back to the debates and opinions of those that really matter and have a genuine interest in the company.
As mentioned, the AGM was well attended and some very good questions raised from those in attendance. Richard Cottee confirmed what I have been saying all along and that was the company’s gradual shift to encompass both oil and gas rather than just the surprise field itself. There are a number of reasons that are behind that shift in focus; first and foremost in Sept last year RC was concerned with the increasing oil production from the US and thought there was a chance of the softening of oil prices which would affect the share price and inline with that he had an enormous confidence in natural gas. That confidence was not just his, but ithe most recent energy agency reports that came out recently. Over the next decade oil consumption is forecasted to increase by 11%, coal 17% & natural gas, 50%.
I asked RC two questions: The first was whether he would be staying on with the company once his contract ends in June next year. His response was that he is a fighter, not a lover ,and he has no intentions of quitting while there is a good fight going on. He said that it obviously depends on shareholders, but his intention is to stay on.
The second question was that what happens if the pipeline was not approved? The first thing he did was mentioned the time lines in the NT pipeline.
Expressions of interest went out two weeks ago. That closes a week before Xmas.
March 2015 there will be a ‘Request for proposal’ (RFP)
NSW Election in late March 2015
Preferred bidder in June 2015.
August 2015 is the NT election
They will hopefully announce the winner in Dec 2015
Federal election in 2016
He believes that we have reached a degree of momentum on this subject that he said was interesting.
He mentioned that if it was approved it would be extremely beneficial to the company and also to the nation as a whole. He mentioned that he is absolutely passionate about Moomba, because he thinks there needs to be a micro economic reform attached to this. He believes that the barriers for entry should be removed for small producers into the gas market. The pipeline would be a golden opportunity for this to happen. What America has shown is a deep and liquid market with proper infrastructure, you can have the price signal transmit through the system. He said that 88.6% of our acreage is gas prone with gas prices bound to escalate. There have been sufficient gas discoveries that would justify the building of a 1600km gas pipeline from Alice Springs to Darwin. He said that we are at the conventional gas stage with lower costs. We are not trying to compete with other unconventional shale gas etc. Therefore the NT pipeline will unlock the value for a large percentage of our acreage. If it doesn’t come about, we still have the same prognosis as we had, we still have PV and Dingo, we still have Alice Springs power station etc. There are still other ways we can commercialise the gas, it will just take a bit longer.
He said that CTP is a gas producer, whilst Dingo is being developed, the revenues that we are getting from the sale of gas from Palm Valley has to go into the dingo development under the Macquarie facility.
Surprise I only took a few notes on Surprise, so my apologies. Maybe someone else that attended might be able to elaborate more on Surprise as well as North Merrenie as I only missed that part of the speech due to a bathroom break! ; ) He said the company assumed a higher production rate and they thought the cash flows would fund Surprise East without going to the market. The difference has been approx $8m annually in the difference between the productions that was prognosis to what is coming in now. This has been arrested in the AUD and reduced transportation costs.
Only a brief overview, but one that was optimistic from my point of view.
If anyone can add to these comments and this thread that was in attendance to fill in the gaps, it would be greatly appreciated and create a greater view of how the AGM played out.
Gibbo
CTP Price at posting:
17.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
