Interesting update heard from Messrs. Gorman and Mitchell this morning.
Re Gloucester
Newcastle is the highest price ($4.50-$5) eastern seaboard gas price in Aust.
From past CSG discoveries evidence suggests that you can expect the 2P to grow to at least the initial 3P reserve calc.
At current gas prices the initial reserves at Gloucester are worth: 2P 170PJ 51m 28cps 3P 359 108-135m 59 – 74cps Total 525 158-235m 86 – 129cps Upside case 820 246-431m 134 – 235cps And this is only calc. using current recovery rates as specified by Sewell
The contingent reserve of 166PJ is classified at the equivalent of 2P grade
Reserves were calculated using very conservative calculations using a map only covering the existing wells and contouring out whereas both MPO & AJL are using a much wider map.
Expect the recovery rate to increase.
The rate of flow from the main well was recorded at just in excess of 1m and it is not inconceivable at a guess that this could double!
If the price was right it is possible that we might get a MOU for gas at Gloucester somewhere June and Dec.
Re South Africa – gas flow is being measured from wells on a daily basis and there is a possibility of getting a reserve certificate of some type prior to the end of June
Re Qld – I think that there will be announcements within the next few weeks
Mention from one analyst about how vulnerable the company is to a takeover at current share prices. Company very aware of this position and realizes that current price only reflects the value of Gloucester alone.
I think that takeover could lob soon if the share price does not dramatically move and I think the directors of MPO share that thought.
Buyers of stock this morning were in attendance at the meeting based on what I gathered from discussion with attendees afterwards
MPO Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
