Microtrader, I thought you deserved a better response to your...

Microtrader, I thought you deserved a better response to your query on market size than the one I gave you at the time.

TDA's 4.12.11 post repeats his earlier figure on the number of ulcers requiring treatment annually. The number he gives is 27 million. He first quoted it on 4.4.11, eight months ago, and I suspect it was not more recent than 2010 - perhaps earlier still.
Let us assume the 25% growth rate is valid - I will suggest reasons later - and apply only eight months growth (starting from TDA's April post) to his figure. That gives us an updated number of 31.5 million ulcers annually, as of now.

MATT666, on 28.11.11, stated that info. from the AGM gave a price per single VitroGro treatment, in the UK, of 50 pounds and the Euro equivalent in Europe. We know that the recent trials related to "non responding" ulcers and that twelve treatments (over twelve weeks) cured or partially cured all but 18% of the trial group. Since VitroGro is not only a much more effective treatment but also a much cheaper treatment, it will also be used to treat less difficult ulcers. You don't know which ones will be difficult until you treat them! Logic says it will become the first choice for all ulcers. So, to finish curing some of the more difficult ulcers will take more than twelve treatments, for others it will be much less. We should be conservative and assume an average of not more than six treatments per ulcer.
Six treatments will generate 300 pounds in revenue, or Aust$460 (approx.).

Total ulcers available 31.5 million, as above, at $460 each gives a total dollar value of $14.49 billion.

I think this justifies us in accepting the figure provided by the Company, even without the knowledge that severe penalties apply to Company Officers issuing false and misleading information to the Market.

As to growth rates. We all know that an aging population and an increasing incidence of diabetes are the primary contributors. I'm sure there are statistics out there to support the Company's 25% annual increase statement. How long this will continue is a good question. My understanding, from sundry medical programmes I listen to, is that things are continuing to deteriorate out there in the big wide world.

I hope my reasoning makes sense to everyone. Challenges are welcome, since I can't lay claim to infallibility. If I could, and was, I ought to be remarkably wealthy - which I don't seem to be!

One final comment on growth rates. I do not see the debt problem of Europe and elsewhere in any way slowing the rate of increase of ulcers. How could it?! As to their treatment, those same problems will concentrate the minds of Governments and Bureaucracies everywhere on "how to cut costs". Not treating ulcers only ends up costing more; the solution is cheaper and more effective treatments. Cost effectiveness is paramount. This should help drive growth in the use of VitroGro, not hinder it.

I must again repeat, while I have some faith in my own figures, no one should rely on them. They represent my opinion only and come with no guarantees. DYOR.