Nothing is certain

I have been watching this thread for some time and decided to register so I could express my, unfortunately negative opinion, about mining at Cinovec. I have studied and lived in Czechia for a number of years and have friends there, who currently work in the mining industry near Chomutov. The messages I am receiving from Bohemia are not encouraging, and indeed I am quite surprised and puzzled as to why there is such enthusiastic interest in these shares here. Sure, the company has exploration licences and preferential right to ask for mining licence, but that is all. There is no firm guarantee that ČBÚ will grant them a mining licence (especially if something unforeseen happens on the way), and no one in the mining company can really make any concrete statement that they are positive the mining licence will be granted to them; they are only hoping that this will happen. I would be extremely cautious, for there may not be a pot of gold at the end of this rainbow

https://www.vlada.cz/cz/media-centr...y-rok-2018-a-vyhled-na-leta-2019-2021-163361/
Návrh zákona, kterým se mění zákon č. 44/1988 Sb., o ochraně a využití nerostného bohatství (horní zákon)
Bill amending Act No. 44/1988 Coll., on the protection and utilization of mineral resources (Mining Act)

T. Huner: Podle odborníků, s nimiž jsem mluvil, se u nás lithium v příštích desetiletích vůbec těžit nebude. Za prvé, ruda, slída, v němž se lithium na Cínovci vyskytuje, je velmi málo kovnatá, v té slídě je jen kolem 6 %. Těžit se mělo 1,8 milionu tun, to by bylo obrovské množství hlušiny, kterou by nebylo kam ukládat. Za druhé není dosud známa technologie úpravy. Nabízí se chemická úprava kyselinou sírovou, což je postup, kterým se těžil uran v Ralsku, to je v současné době zcela nepřijatelné. Další metody, jak získat lithium z nízkokovnatých slíd, se v současné době zkoumají zatím jen v laboratorních podmínkách. Nebyly ještě provedeny ani poloprovozní zkoušky. Odzkoušení a zavedení nové metody by proto mohlo trvat minimálně 15-20 let

According to the experts I spoke to, lithium will not be mined here in the next decades. First, the ore, the mica in which the lithium is found on Cínovec, is very low in metal, in the mica it is only around 6%. To benefit 1.8 million tons, that would be a huge amount of waste that would not be the place to store. Secondly, the treatment technology is not yet known. The chemical treatment with sulfuric acid, which is the process by which uranium was mined in Ralsko, is currently completely unacceptable. Other methods to obtain lithium from low-melting mica are currently being studied only in laboratory conditions. No pilot tests have yet been carried out. Testing and introducing a new method could therefore take at least 15-20 years

quidquid agis prudenter agas et respice finem

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Here are some of the multitude of issues that investors need to consider:

1. Lithium is the 25th most abundant element on earth according to Wikipedia, so not exactly hard to find. Simply discovering a potential deposit means very little and needs much more work.
2. Not every discovery will be commercially viable. In other words, many discoveries will progress nowhere because the lithium can’t be extracted profitably.
3. According to the Handbook of Lithium and Natural Calcium, “lithium is a comparatively rare element, although it is found in many rocks and some brines, but always in very low concentrations. There are a fairly large number of both lithium mineral and brine deposits but only comparatively few of them are of actual or potential commercial value. Many are very small, others are too low in grade.“
4. To go from exploration to commercial production takes years and millions (if not billions) of dollars of funding – not every company will be able to do that successfully.
5. Buying into a lithium company means investors are also taking a punt on management and their expertise – an additional risk.
6. The world’s top four producers are all looking to expand output and capture more of the lithium value chain – including processing.
7. By the time the company commences commercial production, the lithium market could be oversupplied and prices heavily depressed.Even worse, the company could commence production – adding to further oversupply – and prices sink.
8. Batteries will improve in future and may no longer contain lithium. Many popular AA and AAA rechargeable batteries are nickel-metal Hydride (NiMH). Will there be a better rechargeable battery than lithium in future? Possibly