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nothing to do but wait, page-36

  1. 14,239 Posts.
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    Thanks Pandelis but IMO the "market" can be wrong short term as well which is what short term traders aim to take advantage of.

    Perhaps the best example of how the market can be wrong -and massively wrong was the dot com bubble.

    Alan Greenspan warned on December 5, 1996 that the market was becoming overvalued when he used his now famous phrase "Irrational exuberance".
    Amazingly the market went on to be “wrong” for another 3 years until the bubble popped in 2000. I say amazingly because of the extremes it went on to hit with the dot coms.
    The Nasdaq hit a high of over 5000 before collapsing to 1000 for an 80% fall.
    The falls were much more extreme for the smaller dot.com stocks. I clearly remember stocks with no near term foreseeable earnings and only some hope of possible distant earnings reaching market caps of many hundreds of millions and even into the billions. When looking at the companies’ assets and potential earnings vs mc’s, I was at a loss trying to understand why people were buying them.
    Davnet was one Australian example. Most were buying simply because the companies changed their focus from mining to “technology”. The name of the company was far more important than any earnings prospects. It was amazing to watch.
    Many companies that actually had earnings were reaching earnings multiples measured in the hundreds (compare those with ABU’s prospective first full year multiple which could easily be below 2 assuming GH is mined in the first year).
    The dot com bubble was not the first or last bubble and is a classic example of how the market can be wrong to the extreme when pricing stocks.
    Of course part of the market was actually right; the part that was selling or shorting at the top of the bubble. It was the prices of the companies that were “wrong”.
    It can just as easily be wrong in undervaluing companies.
    Why should anybody believe “the market is always right”?
    This wrong or right argument is all a play on words.
    The simple fact is that a companies sp can be wrong (and wrong in a big way) in reflecting the value of a company whether on the high side or low side and that inappropriate sp (not reflecting the value of the company) can be taken advantage of by both traders and investors if they choose to.

 
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