I fear the reality is more that Michael knows the ex-BHP bloc would cold shoulder him in the board room and therefore he would have no voice - a compromise in name only. Thus he has figured they all need to go. Edwards and Manalac are spared the vote because a complete turn out would frighten the horses.
If Michael has >5% behind him then a logical assumption would be that has the 19.9% vote of Mr Yenbamroong. Interestingly, I noticed that he popped up as a top 5 holder for KIK around the time of Gindara and then disappeared again. If he has 19.9% behind him, then it is almost game over. One could reasonably assume Mr Y will want representation and a couple of Thai names will join the board.
The danger is that Michael is seen as MrY's proxy and we have that perception of minority control that some of us have alluded to. A Thai name and a familiar independent name would be calming. A Whitby or a Williams perhaps?
Personally, I think Phil has probably done a fair job under the circumstances. He can't be slagged for Tindalo. He could certainly have done a bit more in communication to the market, but we do seem to be finally getting some traction after his 15 months or so with NDO - admin cuts, reasonable debt funding deals (rather than the convertible notes BS we went through last time), a plan to drill at SC63 at the 11th hour, etc. Granted he could have done a good deal better in sharing his plans in a way the market could understand but I think he has done some reasonable work to turn the ship around. I don't think he was around when legal actions were threatened and is more guilty by association than due to any particular failings. If he was the sole survivor of the BHP bloc and prepared to let it go, it might be able to work. Continuity on the turn around couldn't be all bad...
Lots of ironies in this situation... No doubt the little yellow ducks are paddling furiously and the phones are running hot.
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