One problem is JPR talk alot, but dont go into the finer details.
They have mention atleast 3 things that can/will drive the sp forward: (1)new acquisition (2)JPROA underwriting (3)J51 spud (July)
But they dont seem to have the drive, contacts or ability to put the plan in action with finer details.
They have raised $4.5mil(a stuff up too), but most of that will go towards J50 and NWZ2 infrastructure. What will it leave for a new acquisition or J51 drill campaign?
Will they wait more than 3months for export sales to fund their dreams?
Or will the do another placement? If so, you'd have to think they need another $6mil(just for J51). That will dilute us by another 15%
The market arent willing to put a big value on JPR until the amount of dilution is know.
Should they even be considering acquisitions(and more dilution)??? Maybe get the house in order first. Concentrate on what you have...100% of Block31. That takes enough time and funds already. Expand later without diluting us more than you need to.
Obviously the reason these questions haven't been answered by management is simple - JPROA. How could the do a big CR now without angering JPROA holders, so we wait patiently for the outcome of the options. Then we can progress forward.
Perhaps alot hinged on the underwriting which never happened and hopefully never does now. Maybe they wanted/needed that money more than we realised. Obviously they had faith in JPR/JPROA as they are holders. Even they couldnt predict these market conditions and the market reaction to news.
I understand GoodOil questioning their credibility, as on the surface they have got alot wrong. But really it all comes back to JPROA/funding.
If we forget market noise, and jump ahead 4months, conservatively we have 700bopd (350 from 2wells). That supports 10c sp, and with a clear expansion plan, their should be a forward looking premium. So, I predict >10c sp by years end (undiluted). The thing is how much dilution will their be?
JPR Price at posting:
3.9¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
