"Well my prize was a whole bunch of NWE shares that some short term holders dumped at low 6's."
May well have been a long term holder.
I can't see a short term holder holding from 6.8 all the way to 5.1. Short term hold dictates if your analysis was wrong you exit the trade minimizing the loss. As has been pointed out and moderated numerous times. This was showing no strength to take a short term position since the 12th.