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Here are some back-of-the-envelope calculations of possible pre-tax profits for a range of scenarios for the Cascavel operation.  The variables I've used range from, in my opinion, the worst realistic outcomes for all variables in Column 'B' right through to the best realistic outcomes for all variables in Column 'I'.

The gold price used for all scenarios is constant at current spot of $1,770 AUD.  Of course, this figure could change dramatically either up or down.

Initial mining volume has been indicated to be 40ktpa ramping up to 60ktpa by the end of the year.  Management have indicated that mining should be able to be ramped up to 80ktpa to 100 ktpa by the end of 2017.  And, if all is on-target for 100ktpa by end 2017, then management have indicated that the mining volume could be doubled to 200ktpa for a relatively modest capital investment.  So the 200ktpa volume in column 'I' is not impossible for 2018 and beyond.

The head grade is the question on everyone's lips.  I've used an extremely broad range of grades from 8gpt to 32gpt.

Gravity recovery is probably the most certain variable.  I've used a range from 86% to 92%.  (Don't forget these calculations ignore the value of gold in the tailings.  If the head grade proves to be 20+ gpt then the tailings are potentially very valuable as they would contain 2+ gpt ready for future CIL extraction with no mining or milling costs!)

C1 costs and AISC are very much unknown at this stage but, given the simple gravity processing, I'd be very disappointed if C1 was over $700 AUD and the AISC was over $1000 AUD.

Columns 'H' and 'I' are somewhat dream scenarios but definitely not impossible for beyond 2018 if the head grade, gold price and mining volume stars all align.

I am realistically hoping for something along the lines of Columns 'F' or 'G' by the end of 2017.  Note that the Orinoco M1 profit for 'G' is our current market cap!

Happy for any suggestions or corrections to these figures ...