PT,
Yep looks like we will only get to $20 laboriously over many years, and with the help of one or two excellent exploration outcomes - perhaps we won't.
Next time one of my favourites becomes a market darling, and valued significantly over what I am prepared to pay for it I think I will ruthlessly sell, and wait for the inevitable.
Not sure the $20mmpa is fair though, they made $35mm NPAT before the spike, and with a fairly severe hedging handicap. The $5mm based on a sub par quarter - all planets mis-aligned.
Worth noting that $5mm NPAT represents approx A$1.85/lb payable, or A$2.64/lb pretax. My reckoning is that that is close to the cost advantage IGO has over MCR. These low margins will not sustain more marginal competitors.
We are due some sort of shake out in nickel. Before we suffer a long period at these levels imho MCR and others will be shutting and/or highgrading some of their mines.
The mysteries of LME pricing and other rorts.
EL
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