I think it is most likely is there is a lower mortality in the whole group. This presents problems as the study is powered (number of patients enrolled) in part on what the expected mortality will be, ie they are less likely to be able to show a statistically significant difference if the mortality rate on the whole is lower than expected. In this case as mentioned before the biochemical markers analysis will be very important.
I accept that if the study arm has very very good results due to the drug then it would also show this (and wound be an amazing result ) but I think this unlikely.
Cheers
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