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22/07/20

12:42

Post #: 46027403
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Originally posted by jbw1993 ↑

Can't help but look at NOV and feel incredibly bullish about the stock.

"The bigger the base, the higher into space"

Stock has traded in a 15c to 25c range over the last 4 years (IPO was Jan 2016).

This has meant over the last 4 years of NOV building out it's technology platform and growing revenues significantly, long term supporters have either held or bought more, and the weaker hands have flushed out.

NOV share price has spent 4 years building a large base around 20 cents.

The recent strong volumes provided anyone who didn't want to be in the stock to exit - and I strongly believe any overhang (or perceived overhang) has now gone.

Why can NOV run?

All the hall marks of explosive growth, a non-fuss and quiet IPO in 2016, under-covered story with NOV proving themselves rather than over-promoting early on

very strong management team (CEO is founder NOV and previously built and sold successful tech businesness), Chairman knows how to build companies for exponential growth (look his work with DUB and FZO).

Comparable Charts Look at SMP (SmartPay), very similar, was in a sideways range for approx 4 years and then went parabolic.

Tightly Held Register NOV is very tightly held - NOV top 20 own 67.9%, very similar to SMP which has 75.83%

Compelling Financials and Rapidly Growing:

NOV reported 67% YOY growth in payments processing

$2b+ per annum value of transactions

Substantial Business rapidly growing business perfectly leveraged to payments and cashless economy

Already reached cashflow breakeven - incredible for a fin-tech company at current market cap (a lot of fintechs over $1b mkt cap aren't breakeven)

Fully funded with over $13m in the bank (assume $2m existing, $1m Send FX payment, $10m placement)

Massive upside in Market Cap, only $52m mkt cap with $11.5m revenue per annum vs say SPT.ASX ($550m market cap off US$0.7m revenue last Quarter)

At a $230m market cap, NOV will be trading at 20x sales (justified given its growth rate) - at this market cap, NOV will be over $1.00 per share.

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Love the analysis mate, here for the long haul -but damn it sold down again to 22.5 cents...
NOV Price at posting: 22.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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