NOV 2.56% 4.0¢ novatti group limited

NOV Chart, page-9

  1. 32 Posts.
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    Thanks for the pickup there. Sorry about that.

    Let me back track a little bit.

    I see NOV as a business providing the tech to enable digital payments - a highly scaleable business. In recent years NOV has built out additional services to move up the value curve and therefore capture higher margin opportunities.

    My calculations has the core payments processing business as cashflow breakeven for this September Quarter. Assuming you:
    • extrapolate the 67% YOY growth into this quarter
    • take out the neobank initiatives
    • consider the uplift from Emersion
    • Not necessary - but as a little kicker - if you add the SendFX realisation as well ($0.9m over the next 6 months) under the above assumptions you will definitely get to C/F breakeven for the core business ex neobank
    • Please note this is a personal take on how I look at NOV.

    I agree that this is definitely not a textbook definition of being a cashflow positive business (ie assumptions, one-offs or caveats just pure positive cash profit for a full year) - apologies to anyone misled.

    A few comments on some of the business units:
    • neobank - this I agree has consumed capital - upside can be significant and as it will allow NOV to "own" the end user/payments/digital banking customer
    • ChinaPayments - whatever you think about this division, remember this started as a pure greenfield project with almost Zero capital outlay (existing staff, existing technology team). It is an interesting little business that is working with some behemoths (eg Alipay and Bank of Shanghai) if it continues to excel will be a good pay off for NOV group.
    • BNPL investments - these are also potentially significant for NOV where they have provided tech and framework for various BNPL companies and have considerable equity & financial upside. Minimal capital outlay once again.
    • Consistent Theme - as per above 3 dot points NOV doesn't pay above and beyond for it's innovation and new projects. In fact often it starts from scratch with no outlay. Preferring to build and test and under a true silicon valley approach in failing early and fast & funding opportunities at signs of good growth. The beauty of this company is the strong, rapidly growing payments processing business to underpin all other growth initiatives as it works further up the value curve and services an accelerating tidal wave of over $2b in Australian and global payments.

 
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