I can give you a fairly simple reason as to why it could (not must) head up to 50c next week. Obviously the catalyst for the recent rerate was a massive positive change to the company and outlook. That triggered a huge price change and record volumes, unprecedented for this stock. There is no doubt that the last two weeks put this stock on significantly more radars. I often look at the Stake trading platform as it actually tells you how many people have a stock on their watchlist, and over the past 2 weeks EYE rocketed from being on about 80 watchlists to 135. You can assume the number on Commsec and other platforms would be substantially higher (seems like most people use Commsec watchlists, even if they don't use the platform for trading).
That's just retail. As many here know, institutional/sophisticated investors make up a large % of the register, and many other institutions would at least know about EYE thanks to it being ELX several years ago. These larger investors would be looking for millions of shares, not just thousands or even hundreds of thousands of shares. Moreover, unlike retail they don't press that buy button as soon as the news is released or the price rallies. The institutional buyers do much more research prior to investing, and so any institutional buying that may have occurred over the past week and a bit would have only been those who already know the company.
There are potentially many new institutional/sophisticated investors who are still doing their DD on this one and could very easily be ready to buy as early as next week or the week after (guessing they will aim to buy before the sales update in late Jan). This would be quite a compelling play for them, as they already have the data indicating it is definitely a solid growth stock (i.e. the recent 75% growth number) that will be profitable in the near term, but is still being valued akin to a dud stock due to a threat that no longer exists. Therefore, a buyer at these prices will not just be getting share price appreciation that happens with growth in revenue, but they should also expect to get a rerate related to the valuation multiple moving from around 2x revenue to 5-10x revenue (which is similar to peers and other growth stocks).
They also would note that the market is giving zero attention to 2RT and future R&D, and will enjoy having the "free option" to benefit from any 2RT upside, without any of the typical downside usually associated with speculative projects like these. The company has reiterated its confidence that they will secure a deal and are progressing discussions with potential partners very well, and as we have seen they only really comment on things that they are very confident about and will avoid speculating on more uncertain things.
Now we all know how tightly held this stock is. It only really takes one of these large institutional investors to decide they want to accumulate a decent sized position (e.g. 5-10 million shares plus) to really give the price a massive boost. Add a few more to the mix and it could get very interesting indeed. If one is ready to buy next week, and have quite a high price target, they might be quite aggressive with their buying. There aren't a lot of shares out there so they have to be competitive, and given this is on the radars of many traders and retail investors now, a sudden rebound in volumes will definitely attract more of these investors back into the mix.
I am not thinking about any of the TA stuff here of course as that is not really my domain. I am considering how people and institutions etc. work, and I do believe we could easily see continued buying from those investors who have not yet had sufficient time to do their DD (and who tend to be at the larger end of the scale). Many fundies won't really pay attention to what the chart has been doing (some do of course). They won't be waiting to see if the price goes down, as they know it very well may not head back down and would rather not bet on where the price will go (and risk missing out on the upside if an unexpected announcement arrives). They will establish what they think this should be valued at, and will use that to assess how much they buy and how aggressive they are. Using a simple peer analysis method, that is several multiples higher than the current price.
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