Nova Eye Medical (EYE) Discussion, page-52

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22/03/23

22:40

Post #: 66910218
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Originally posted by TheAnalyst007: ↑

I modelled the numbers given to us by management in a spreadsheet a few posts above. Currently we have the original device which has about 200 doctors in the US paying roughly $50k on average per year to use. The total number of Glaucoma surgeons in the USA is over 10,000 and management assumes that the features of the Advance model could appeal to at least 1,200 of those surgeons, which I would say is reasonable. There is a comparison around the top of the thread between iTrack Advance and competing devices and it is pretty obvious from watching these devices being used in actual wet lab scenarios that iTack Advance is superior in many ways to those of our competitors (imo). Moreover, since the original device has been approved since 2008, the brand name is well known (the original device pioneered the market but had limitations) which means the newer model will likely be adopted/trialed quite rapidly post-approval. The market is also still in its early stages, but is quite large and is growing fast (MIGS should hit about US$5bn by 2030 growing at a CAGR of around 15-20% according to Allied Market Research).

Based on management's projections, the growth of the industry and a comparison between iTrack Advance and competitor devices, I would argue it is fairly reasonable to assume that the 1,200 doctor target is correct. If this occurs, we would be looking at a price above $3 based on peer company valuations. It seems high but I have actually been very conservative with my assumptions. This is assuming that doctors don't increase their average spend on the devices, which I think they will as it is much easier to use than before (but for the sake of the accuracy of the model I am simplifying assumptions). This also assumes that 2RT doesn't even exist (which is the longer term project which could end up being the first ever treatment for intermediate age related macular degeneration). FDA clearance should be this week, or at the latest next week. The market will want to wait for FY23 financials, but I reckon we will be seeing significant uptake of this device as early as the FY23 results are released and the share price should begin to react accordingly.

Clearly someone else knows this, as big fish have been gobbling up all the shares they can the past few days.

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Analyst
Thanks so much for taking the time to give me such a detailed outline.
Much appreciated.
Sounds exciting

Cheers

EYE Price at posting: 26.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
5 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Nova Eye Medical (EYE) Discussion, page-52

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Nova Eye Medical (EYE) Discussion, page-52

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