Nova Eye Medical (EYE) Discussion, page-8

Target Price: $5.39/sh

Decided to have a play around with some of the numbers we were given in the recent presentation in order to forecast future sales, and therefore the potential future share price.

Using the current revenue and the current number of doctors using iTrack I have estimated average spend per customer (doctor) at $76,000.

I have used that figure to estimated the revenue that could be generated based on the number of doctors using iTrack.

I have also assumed that the revenue multiple will increase to the industry average as soon as EYE begins to generate solid growth (e.g. a re-rate)

I have also assumed that the composition of US revenue relative to total will remain constant.

Assuming a multiple between that of SGHT and GLKOS of 6x revenue, If management expectations of 1,200 new doctors is correct we could be looking at revenue in excess of $136m, which would see a share price of $5.39/sh

Moreover, there is a good chance that doctors will increase the number of canaloplasty procedures given the fact that iTrack Advance is easier to use relative to iTrack, meaning the revenue/doctor figure could be a very conservative estimate.

I extended the table beyond 1,200 doctors given the fact that, according to Nova Eye Medical, there could be potentially 10,000 more doctors who could use iTrack Advance in their practice.

If just half (5000) of these doctors used iTrack Advance, we could be looking at a share price of $23.34/sh

If all of these doctors used iTrack Advance (possible, given that over the coming years many new doctors will become trained in MIGS), we could be looking at a share price of almost $50/sh

If management is even half correct with their prediction for iTrack Advance, Nove Eye Medical (EYE) is a gold mine!