Hey all,
Thanks for all your hard work and research. This forum is one of the better forums on HotCopper.
I have bought in today and excited to hold long term. I'll be continuing to buy as funds come in. Still shocked at the price considering how far the company has already come.
My rough thoughts/thesis below.
Not sure it adds much to what has already been said but thought I'd say it anyway!
Thoughts
1. A Strong Leadership Team
Strong team with lots of previous experience.
Interviews with management demonstrate their technical expertise.
They don’t seem to be as strong at promoting things the market cares about – more specifically customer numbers and growth forecasts.
I’d like to see more numbers/forecasts/quantified growth from them but I’m sure that will come as it’s still early days.
I’d rather management who are factual than overhyping and this team seems capable and genuine.
People complain a lot on here about the raise which I understand would have been annoying. But necessary to fund expansion. When you have a hot product, you want to get that out to the world as soon as possible to take up market share.
Low compensation and holding shares both big ticks from me.
2. A Large Target Market/Promising Growth Industry
Procedures:
· Currently - 300,000 procedures.
· Potential – 700,000 procedures by 2027
Further potential - cataract world’s most common operation – 20% of them have glaucoma which could use our device.
Customers
· · Currently 200 customerson original device.
· · 1200 totalopportunity for dedicated surgeons.
· · 10 000 potential cataractsurgeons
3. Commanding Market Share
Product has a strong MOAT.
Dedicated customer base to original product demonstrates stickiness once signed up.
360 device which is huge for efficiency and speed of delivery.
From my research, speed is key and this seems to be the king of speedy deliver to the eye
NOTHING is left in the eye unlike other procedures. No need to cut any tissue.
Solves issue of non-compliance in eye drops.
Reimbursement changes will mean a move toward our product.
4. Strong Sales Growth
To be seen but the model is strong – disease can’t be cured and device is one use so there are strong recurring sales once a doctor is locked in.
So far marketing activities look promising.
San Diego event had roughly 4000+ surgeons – training/instructions on the spot.
This suggests practical exposure so far.
6. Valuation
On a conservative multiple of 4x (which is less than SGHT) this is considerably undervalued and the market seems to only be valuing the current customers on the original device.
Current price is similar to prior to FDA approval means the market has given almost no value to this.
Blue sky potential with 2RT.
I’ve been very conservative with my figures due to this being early stages with no customer numbers:
· $35,000 AUD per surgeon.
· With a target of 600 out of the potential 10000+ surgeons by end of 2024 this should re-rate substantially.
7. Concerns
· No quantified customer numbers for growth.
· Not sure how much the market cares for non-profit companies in the current environment.
· Med tech a bit out of favour as well.
8. Looking for
· Marketing should deliver massive growth or nothing in the next 0-2 years and I want to see indication of growth.
· At least 600 surgeons signed up by 2024
· Some initial numbers/sentiment on customers in the half yearly report.
(20min delay)