Nova Eye Medical (EYE) Discussion, page-26

Hey all, apologies but there was an error in the model I created a few days ago. I accidently used total revenue when I should have only included the US portion (given that I was dividing it by the number of doctors in the USA). This made potential revenue appear higher than it should have been.

I now present the revised version, which values the company at $3.61/sh based on management's forecast of the number of doctors who will be using iTrack Advance in the USA. The minimum value of $0.6/sh is what the company should be valued at currently, based on current revenue and peer multiples (average of 6x rev compared to EYE's valuation of 2x LTM rev). There is a max of $30/sh based on the current total number of USA glaucoma surgeons (not very realistic but a good guide for a potential range of prices. The full description of this model is in the original post (which I have linked to this post). It isn't $5 but still an exciting target that would provide investors with a "Disallowed" return.

Of course, this is a valuation based on revenue (though valuations of comps would also consider revenue only) and importantly, gives ZERO consideration to the impact of 2RT on the future valuation of the company. Keep that in mind, this model assume that 2RT does not exist and never will exist. It also does not account for the fact that the increased ease and efficiency of iTrack Advance relative to the old model would likely result in average spend per doctor increasing substantially. Therefore, I would argue this is quite a conservative model, and the actual future price could certainly be substantially higher.