I have enjoyed all the speculation over what Novartis will do...

I have enjoyed all the speculation over what Novartis will do with the proceeds of its sale of its shares in another Drug Company.

We have the benefit of hindsight in looking at their investment in Roche. I maybe wrong but it seems to me that they were not interested in remaining shareholders in a company with perhaps similar growth rates as they have in their own business. They have had a good annualised return because they are selling now.

Share buy backs are an easy way of improving EPS but it can only take you so far. A good pipeline is the key as existing products lose their exclusivity and are challenged by generics. We have discussed the cost of developing new products and the likelihood of them simply not working or not being safe. Novartis to me are like @alhambra. They will invest when they know that they are on to a winner. It might cost more but it rules out failure and there is still enough upside to make it worthwhile. Sincerely, well done them, if I had followed that path I may be sitting easy today. Certainly not £300k under water. That money would still be there to invest now. But that is with hindsight of the FDA decision to ignore the 9-1 vote and allow young children to die a horrible death needlessly. I know it works and the rest is time and that time is fast approaching.

As many of you including @otherperspective have pointed out. With a positive OTAT meeting many doors open. Should be enough for the Ards deal to be confirmed shortly afterwards (that will take the pressure for a CR off) but the new "darling" may well be a partnership on Heart. Again as has been pointed out, 5 years of first class data and plenty of time to analyse the results.

Peer reviewed analysis is soon to be presented by a world leading expert. Lots of speculation on that one, but all it needs to do is confirm the startling results of preventing 2 becoming 3 and bingo!

That with a positive OTAT meeting, will mean (again as OP has pointed out) that any further Heart trial can be design around the known results from the previous trial with a endpoint that could be 50% of what we have already achieved, and that still blow the opposition out of the water. No missed endpoint there and a short timespan.

Ok it may not be 100% guaranteed but the data from the first trial would be clear, as would the "quality kitemark" of the therapy the FDA have said that they are looking for.

The partnership maybe more expensive for Novartis (and for @alhambra) than if they had "ponied up" 5 years ago or lets face it now, but the risk is much reduced and the return even at that point will be 10x + their investment. They are no fools and they (Novartis) need a sparkling pipeline to grow their own share price.

For me the success of heart and all the other treatments of inflammation are a matter of not if but when. What I am looking forward to is the thread that I hope to start in 2 years: "The growth rate of Mesoblast Share Dividend". I expect it to start at about 30% of my original investment. Seems a lot but actually I expect it to be in excess of 100% in 5 years . Pie in the Sky? Well its only my opinion and time will tell.

Happy days to come
Regards
Yelrom