Judo Bank was issued unrestricted banking licence in June 2019. Revenues have grown very fast YOY.
Have a look at page 17 of their recent Annual Report.
https://cdn.unifii.net/judobank/40c6f7dd-01cf-4ba4-b66a-50b78c1bc18b.pdfFY20 revenue of $28.3M with $50M loss & FY21 revenue of $89.8M with $4M loss = +217.3% YOY growth. FY22 expecting to generate a profit. Amazing how fast they turned around a $50M loss in FY20 to a tiny $4M loss in FY21.
Assuming NOV obtains restricted licence by end of this year + 6-9 months mentioned by PC for unrestricted licence = June-Sept 2022
Judo Bank's revenue grew from next to nothing to $28.3M in first year after obtaining unrestricted licence & tripled revenue to $89.M in the second year.
217.3% revenue growth has a x26 revenue multiple which is about the same price as the Judo Bank IPO at $2.3B. $89.8M x 26 = $2,334.8M.
If the NOV bank is half as successful as Judo Bank it will have $45M revenue after 2 years with unrestricted banking licence x 26 = $1,170M MC x 50% NOV share = $585M MC value. Most likely will be undervalued at x15 multiple blended with other NOV revenue streams hence an IPO will be required to realise the actual value.
I have forecast Q1 FY25 revenue to be circa $45M per quarter with NOV 50% holder of the bank x 4 = $190M run rate. Revenue will double every year now in leau of rising 50% YOY as rapid expansion has been enabled.
$190M x 15 multiple for 100% YOY growth = $2.85B MC. Will definitely be $2B+ MC with 50% bank holding.
The above assumes NOV's bank will be half as successful as Judo Bank. Allows for $675M MC at x15 multiple for 50% NOV share but could be as high as $1B+ if it is as successful as Judo Bank.
$139.9M MC with exposure to something as big as 50% of $2.3B Judo Bank IPO is heaps better return than investing in Judo Bank.
$2.3B MC / $139.9M MC = x16.4 NOV upside to get to the same MC as Judo Bank IPO.
With all the current NOV customers & RKN customers there is a high likelihood NOV's bank will grow faster than Judo Bank.
Judo Bank IPO due tomorrow.
