Novatti - The $1 party, page-4004

Updated US employment data from Philadelphia Fed.

Fed used manipulated data of 368k for April (18k actual), 386k for May (36k actual) & 293k for June (-57k actual) by loading each month with 350k jobs.

Early Benchmark Revisions of
State Payroll Employment
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
2022 Q2 Vintage
Release Date:
December 13, 2022

Early Benchmarks for All 50 States and the District of Columbia

Estimates by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia indicate that the employment changes from March through June
2022 were significantly different in 33 states and the District of Columbia compared with current state estimates from
the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Current Employment Statistics (CES). Early benchmark estimates indicated higher
changes in four states, lower changes in 29 states and the District of Columbia, and lesser changes in the remaining 17
states.

Our estimates incorporate more comprehensive, accurate job estimates released by the BLS as part of its
Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program to augment the sample data from the BLS’s CES that
are issued monthly on a timely basis. All percentage change calculations are expressed as annualized rates. Read
more about our methodology. Learn more about interpreting our early benchmark estimates.

In the aggregate, 10,500 net new jobs were added during the period rather than the 1,121,500 jobs estimated by the sum of the
states; the U.S. CES estimated net growth of 1,047,000 jobs for the period.

https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/surveys-and-data/benchmark-revisions/early-benchmark-2022-q2-report.pdf

US 2 years bond yields have rolled over = rate rises finished. Chart with US02Y overlayed with USINTR shows everytime the US02Y rolls over is at peak of rate rise cycle. April 1989, January 1995, June 2000, July 2006, November 2018 rate rises peaked when US 2 year rolled over like now.

Highly unlikely US terminal rate will be 5.1%. The Fed has finished hiking regardless of what they say.

When will the market wake up? January 2023 like January 2019?