Hmm, VCR and other medical device companies can generally take...

Hmm, VCR and other medical device companies can generally take products to market quicker than drug developers (Which NRT is).

Novogen's OTC business (promensil etc) should be ignored as it doesn't look like it will be profitable for the immediate future. It certainly doesn't justify $5 per share.

The value is in the pipeline. The drug closest to commercialisation is NV-07a. They are set to sign a deal with a large cosmetic company before year end. This should bring a large up front payment plus a royalty stream. Cosmetic companies are currently testing the compound. It's an anti-ageing cream which also heals sun burn and prevents skin cancer (already clinically proven).

The next is NV-06 more commonly known as Phenoxodiol. The trick with this is that once it starts commercialisation you would have missed the boat. The big leaps in stock price will be on successful Phase II trials, FDA fast track, FDA orphan drug status, FDA accelerated approval, Successful Phase III trials and or a partnership deal.

If it works out to be a cure for cancer it won't hit the market in a month or two but you can bet that the market would fully price the share and probably over do it like DNA in the states.

Anyhow, good luck with your choice. NRT in my opinion is less risky and offers more upside. It would be nice to get some more below $4 but that looks very unlikely with the massive news flow in the coming months.

Cheers,
Munch.