I've traded in and out (and now back in) of this stock in the...

I've traded in and out (and now back in) of this stock in the last year as it was not a core stock of interest for me, so maybe I look at this one a bit more dispassionately. Though I am starting to look at this as a potential hold for the next few years.

I agree with your sentiments about the broad prospects for the industry and the technology this company has. I've also seen some "pie in the sky" pro forma profit & loss spreadsheets prepared by other HC members which make the future look very bright (but which I take with a big pinch of salt).

With a market cap of close to $1billion I would not say that this company is cheap. No way. That kind of market cap implies that one day (soonish) the company should be making EBIT of $50million (for a PE ratio of 20x). There is a lot of "expectation" priced into the company already... at some point the company needs to deliver those kind of profit levels just to justify the current share price.

Now, if all continues to go well and the company can deliver on the expectations of production, technology, growth and profit, then maybe one day the current share price will indeed look cheap. But that also depends on how many more capital raisings (dilution) will be required to scale the company along the way... and how many years need to pass?

And in my opinion that's why the share price has moved up and down so much in the last year - speculation versus reality - the opportunity has not been fully de-risked yet so the jury is out on what this stock should be worth in the short term.

I have a small parcel and will look to accumulate, all going well.