Rechargeable Battery: Growth to Accelerate Rechargeable battery...

Rechargeable Battery: Growth to Accelerate

Rechargeable battery demand should climb from 211GWh in 2020 to 1,390GWh by 2025. Demand for rechargeable batteries for xEVs (passenger vehicle basis) is forecasted to grow from 118GWh in 2020 to 1,012GWh by 2025. The xEV portion of rechargeable battery demand should increase from 56% in 2020 to 73% by 2025. Considering automakers’ efforts to boost driving ranges for xEVs, demand for xEV rechargeable batteries might surpass current projections.

Major automakers have announced their plans to launch long-range xEVs that require adoption of high capacity rechargeable batteries. Korean companies’ influence to strengthen

Capacity expansions for domestic rechargeable battery makers (ie, LG Chem, Samsung SDI, and SK Innovation) are expected to concentrate in Europe and the US, in turn strengthening their influence in the rechargeable battery market. The Europe+North America portion out of Korean rechargeable battery makers’ total production capacity is to rise from 38% in 2020 to 51% by 2025. The Europe+North America portion out of the global xEV market should climb from 36% in 2019 to 55% by 2025.

Considering their production bases in Europe and North America (the two regions to take up around a half of global demand), domestic rechargeable battery makers are expected to enjoy a more than 40% share of the global market.

Tesla’s influence in rechargeable battery market to remain strong
Going forward, Tesla’s rechargeable battery demand is to rise—2018: 25GWh (US$3.5bn; battery pack price of US$141/kWh) → 2019: 37GWh (US$4.7bn; US$127/kWh) → 2020E: 53GWh (US$6.0bn; US$114/kWh) → 2021F: 66GWh (US$6.8bn; US$103/kWh). Tesla’s rechargeable battery market influence should stay strong on its efforts to expand xEV models, production capacity, and production bases.

Focus on Tesla’s local battery sourcing strategy

Tesla procures rechargeable batteries mostly from local factories. As battery sourcing costs represent the lion’s share of xEV production costs (approximately 50% in the case of battery packs), strategies for local procurement of batteries represent a crucial consideration for xEV makers. Tesla’s US factory secures rechargeable batteries from Navada (Panasonic’s cell production factory) and others, while its Chinese factory sources rechargeable batteries from LG Chem’s Nanjing factory and other China-based factories. In light of its local battery sourcing strategy, its upcoming German factory is also likely to use batteries produced in Europe.

Tesla’s Shanghai factory is expected to use rectangular batteries for some xEV models. The automaker is projected to use rechargeable batteries manufactured at CATL based on the vendor’s CTP+LFP technology. The CTP+LFP technology should be at the forefront of the trend of lowering specifications triggered by the Chinese government’s auto subsidy cuts.

‘Q’ factor to spur market growth

Some xEV companies are anticipating that rechargeable battery cell price will decline below US$100/kWh within 2~3 years; meanwhile, rechargeable battery players are predicting their earnings will improve over the next 2~3 years. With quantity growth (Q) likely to outshine price decline (P), battery price decline is unlikely to impact rechargeable market growth. In fact, despite product price drops, most rechargeable battery makers are enjoying both top- and bottom-line improvement.

Rechargeable battery makers’ costs – favorable for margins

The costs of making rechargeable batteries divide mainly into materials costs and processing costs (manufacturing & other); in general, materials represent 70% of total costs, with processing costs accounting for 30%.

The price of cathode (raw material cost portion: 28~34%) has been declining, and copper foil price has exhibited limited fluctuations; stable major metals (raw materials) prices bode well for rechargeable battery makers’ margins. Processing cost differs by individual company’s technological capabilities; however, processing costs do not pose a major cost burden as they represent a relatively smaller portion out of total costs.