On page 3 the report states: "We feel that OncoSilTM therefore has the potential to be a blockbuster (sales > 1 billion) within a few years since the therapy would be useful in other cancers as well."
I would love for this treatment to be a blockbuster, especially for the patients, but this massively overstates the likely market over the next few years. SRX revenue is about $176M after several years and a more solid evidence base.
Getting CE mark will be a big positive, but there is a long road ahead to even approach SRX commercial success, let alone $1B sales. The figure is based upon assuming all non-surgical candidates (85% of pancreatic Ca, page 11) would be suitable. Over half of these have metastatic disease where treatment at $10K may be futile, whilst other patients may not be fit for intervention. There is also a not insignificant need for access to endoscopic ultrasound for delivery into the tumours. OSL may be a long term winner, I hope it does, but is likely to take years to develop as a routine therapy.
Post-CE mark, the design of the OncoPac-1 trial in the US will be of key interest. Presumably this will focus on patients with localised but non-resectable disease and good performance status. It will also be of interest to see how well such a study accrues patients when competing against new immunomodulatory drugs and therapies targeting specific mutations. Oncosil really needs some more robust data before it can establish itself as the intended 1st line therapy, especially in the U.S. A T/O by a company with established commercial experience may be the best outcome to expedite this.
OSL Price at posting:
18.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)