from http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/geo/analysis.htm
STRATEGY AND THE GREAT POWERS by J. R. Nyquist
In politics and war, the public often fails to see the big picture, tending to think in a fragmentary way. Because of modern journalism, events are often treated as discreet items. Failing to put things into context, the significant is lost in the trivial. The uninspired observer isn’t sure which fact or point is decisive, or which dangers are passing, or which problems may safely be ignored. Lost in minutia, the mediocre intellect cannot think strategically. The German sociologist, Max Weber, once said three qualities are decisive for political leaders: “passion, a feeling of responsibility, and a sense of proportion.” A great statesman, however, has additional advantages: strength of soul, firmness, sound judgment, self-confidence and shrewdness. An effective national strategy depends not only on good ideas, but firmness in carrying them forward. If a nation cannot promote, within itself, great statesmen or strategists, then it may lose ground to other nations.
The international system is composed of nation-states or empires. Among these, the great powers are most important. For an in-depth study of the nation-state system and how it works, consider John J. Mearsheimer’s book, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. According to Mearsheimer, “The rhetoric about the growing strength of international institutions notwithstanding, there is little evidence that they can get great powers to act contrary to the dictates of realism [i.e., their own interests].”
It has become fashionable, since 1991, to talk of a “unipolar world.” But the international system “is not unipolar,” says Mearsheimer. “Certainly the United States is the preponderant economic and military power in the world, but there are two other great powers in the international system: China and Russia.” American policymakers ignore this reality at their own peril. When President Clinton referred to Russia as a “strategic partner” and China as an “economic partner,” he was talking nonsense. With Russian help, China is preparing to for a future conflict. Since America is the strongest world power, the second and third powers have joined together. As Mearsheimer states, “relations between the great powers are likely to become less peaceful than they were during the 1990s.” This obvious truth is ignored, and grave policy errors have been committed by one presidential administration after another. America has shrugged off Moscow’s post-Soviet treaty breaking and China’s damaging espionage campaign. It has been a grave strategic error, on the American side, to integrate China into the world economy and advance its development.
America is a great power in competition with Russia and China. If the United States suffers defeat, China and Russia will be the primary beneficiaries. Competition between great powers is a zero sum game in which one side wins a relative advantage over the other. Russia and China are not free market enterprises following a win-win strategy. They are traditional empires following time-honored Asiatic methods. Meanwhile, in the West, the state has been unwittingly reduced – in the words of Edmund Burke – to “a partnership agreement in a trade of pepper and coffee … or some other such low concern….” A nation is not a trading company. As someone formerly revered in the West explained, “Man does not live by bread alone.”
When Russia engages in a dispute with Ukraine over the price of natural gas, the matter must not be understood as a business dispute between traders in “pepper and coffee.” At stake is the Ukrainian government, suddenly made unpopular in advance of parliamentary elections. The issue of natural gas was used to upset Ukraine’s internal equilibrium, setting the stage for further machinations. Japan and Europe take note: Moscow is using gas as a strategic weapon.
When China trades with the United States, dumping cheap goods on the American market, it is not merely a business arrangement between traders in “pepper and coffee.” One great power invades and disrupts the market of another as part of a long-term strategic plan. In trading with China, the United States has forgotten the realities of great power rivalry, foolishly applauding the superficial appearance of economic cooperation. The underlying reality is economic penetration, subversion and disruption.
