Glads,Nido quote the 'chance of success' (COS) of this well as...

Glads,

Nido quote the 'chance of success' (COS) of this well as 40%. The COS usually means the chance of finding at least the 'lowside' estimated oil volume (in this case 448mmstb). It doesnt usually refer to the chance of finding the '1 billion' bbl mean STOIIP that the April presentation quotes. the chance of finding this mean volume will likely be alot smaller.

by the way, 40% COS is a reasonably high COS - some would say too high, considering the seismic has no DHIs (not that Nido talk about anyway).

Conversely, there is a 60% chance that the well will fail to find oil....

the COS is often calculated by combining the estimated chances of getting a trapping structure, reservoir, top seal and hydrocarbon charge. there are clearly considerable uncertainties in estimating these as we can never know 100% what happen 000's of meters below the sea level.