According to Epitan's website the US market for solarium use is $8 Billion a year. So I guess that world wide solarium use would be say...$20 Billion. Lets say that the fake tan industry is about $4 Billion a year.
That makes $24 Billion that people spend on tanning each year worldwide.
Considering that melanotan will is a vastly superior product to either solariums or fake tans, lets be conservative and say that Epitan will take say 30% (I reckon it will end up being close to 100%) of this $24 Billion. This equals $7.2 Billion.
And there will heaps of people that would like a tan but wont risk cancer for it- say another $3 Billion.
Total income = $10.2 Billion
Lets say they pay their JV partner $2.2 Billion for manufacturing and distribution.
That leaves $8 Billion
Minus $1 Billion for costs (stationary, toilet paper, coffee and tea for the tearoom and Office parties)
Leaves $7 Billion. Subtract 30% company tax
Leaves $4.9 Billion
When companies become cashflow positive they do one or more of the following:
1) Reinvest the profits into expansion or further R & D. (Smart companies get >$1 for every dollar reinvested and dumb ones get <$1 for every dollar invested.
2) Reward the share holders (dividends)
3) Share buybacks
4) Rape and pillage the company- then piss off to Spain.
Lets assume that buy this stage the company will have issued another 40 million shares - bringing the total number of shares to about 150 million. If $4 Billion gets returned to share holders (with $900 million in bonuses for the lab rats and directors) that means a annual dividend of $26.67 per share!
At say a 8% yeild that makes a share price of $333. If they take 60% of the market that makes $667 per share. Someone please slap some sense into me!
I think the figures I have used are huge but not unrealistic.
Have I missed anything? Any comments?
.....Assuming the trials work!
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- now for some maths...
According to Epitan's website the US market for solarium use is...
-
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 1 more message in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add CUV (ASX) to my watchlist
(20min delay)
|
|||||
Last
$15.69 |
Change
0.280(1.82%) |
Mkt cap ! $785.7M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$15.16 | $15.98 | $15.03 | $2.391M | 152.0K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 1355 | $15.64 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$15.75 | 1783 | 3 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 100 | 15.600 |
1 | 500 | 15.050 |
1 | 2853 | 15.030 |
2 | 1000 | 15.000 |
1 | 600 | 14.800 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
15.750 | 1300 | 2 |
15.790 | 100 | 1 |
15.820 | 250 | 1 |
15.920 | 250 | 1 |
15.930 | 3000 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 30/08/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
CUV (ASX) Chart |
The Watchlist
CCO
THE CALMER CO INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
Anthony Noble, MD & CEO
Anthony Noble
MD & CEO
Previous Video
Next Video
SPONSORED BY The Market Online