now is different

Forget the past, now is different! I'm thinking now might be a good time to buy for the following reasons:

Telstra and the government are now cooperating on T3. If management were good at ramping the sp down then they are probably just as good at ramping it up. The reasons to continue to ramp it down have gone. T3 will make the gov a minority investor and no longer in control. Agreeing to maintain the bush with existing services is a small price to pay for 100% privatisation. The FTTN is not on the cards. Once privatised, (after T3) any new regulation applies to all telcos equally making the playing field level.

Deciding not to roll out the FTTN was the right decision. Any network rolled out by telstra after privatisation will be 100% owned and controlled by telstra. An FTTN or FTTP would replace many existing (copper) services making them low maintenance. The new services available to the public (eg HiDef TV) would produce more return.

T3 is likely to get snapped up in no time and mostly by small investors. Why:

1) SP at record low (oversold) and small investors have priority.
2) Pay by 3 interest free instalments over 18mths and get ~5% discount on price.
3) Get 2 dividend payments in first 10mths (totalling ~14% fully franked, ~20% return on outlay, assuming no cap gain or loss.)
4) When (if) telstra reaches $5, T3 investors will have 50% return on investment.
5) Instos will miss out on T3, for these reasons, and will be hungry for tls like sharks. (Why? See below.)

Has anyone heard of the "Investable Weighting Factor" (IWF) used to calculate S&P ASX indices? Well this is used to determine how much of a stock comprises the S&P ASX indices.

When telstra is fully privatised its IWF will double. So instos and super funds have to double their holdings. Well, would they prefer to do that now, with the sp around record low $3.50, or wait a couple of years for 100% privatisation to take effect? No doubt, they have good reason to want to scare the small investor away from T3 and talk (ramp) the sp down. Me thinks they won't succeed! Too many of them in competition and hungry. Feeding frenzy more likely!

I'm no investment advisor. So please do your own research. This is just what I have gathered from some quick research. Feel free to correct me if I am wrong anywhere.