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21/01/19

12:46

Post #: 37174732
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Originally posted by TShirt: ↑

Well done to both long and shorter term holders.

Todays announcement is the tipping point for this company going from non commercial to commercial and that is a very big deal.

First up we will be progressing to a proven asset base. We now have sufficient data (t1,t2,t3 soon) to gain certified reserves rather than a resource figure. The current resource figures will not all carry over to 2P reserves as they include the undeveloped Queens Cliff well. My rough guess is we could have 2P reserves attributable to the Tamarama area of somewhere around 400bcf .
This would still leave a potentially recoverable resource within the permit approaching 5tcf subject to drilling beyond the certifiable Tamarama zone.

Second up, we can soon do supply deals. Once T-3 results are in deals as previously explored could be inked giving Real significant upfront cash for guaranteed gas supply. The last deal proposed was $6m upfront when gas prices were much lower than today.

Cash flow will start more or less as soon as the pipeline is connected and tested.

Farm in interest will be easily attained if that is a path the company wants to take.

Buy out interest will also be likely albeit perhaps when actual development has progressed a little further.

I have said a couple of times since 2013 that from a conversation with SB about these plays in the USA it can take up to 6 wells to maximise flows due to engineering /design/frac changes. I expect flows to improve from T-4 onwards.

Exciting times ahead!

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Ironically eleven years ago this year is when I did very well particularly out of CSG plays. Ironically crashes come every 11 years on average. Maybe RLE will be my saviour this year if we do have the crash?? Having said that, RLE appears very cheap IMO at these levels given current progress and relative to peers!!

RLE Price at posting: 9.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
4 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Now things get interesting., page-5

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