'(A) Either the Feds become crazy and Clawback 20% from us the Broker Firm guys and give that to the Voters the Mom and Dads which means we get $1.2 Bil and Mom and dads get 3 Bil and the Instos balls would be squeezed so hard they would only get $1.8 bill so a total of $6 bill say around $2.15 that is a ratio of 70% retail and 30% instos.'
The broker scale back is huge to start with, assuming the brokers do an percentage cut. So based on the $ initially invested the bottom line is that broker applications are only going to be a fraction of application. A further scale back, be it 10% or 20% is all rather marginal based on the funds potentially invested. E.G if the broker application is scaled back from 100 shares to 30 shares, and then an additional reduction is in force it may end up with 27 or 24 (on anywhere between 24 and 30).
So the total allocated may be 24 or 27 (20% & 10%) rather than 30. Out of 100 it is a marginal impact, and being mainly 'sophisticated investors' they will know how the game is played. Thus why so many applied for to start with.
I appreciate that as a broker application you feel strongly about this, but I think you are over egging this one to say that the Feds must be crazy to do a 20% scale back. With hundred of thousands of small holdings in retail hands it is more likely that the SP will be strong for longer, as a good % will hold them, IMO.
Clearly from the vast over subscription by a select few broker clients many will be in it for a fast buck. The insto will be interesting as many have a mandate to own a % of top 20/50/100/200 of the ASX, and thus will be forced, at some stage, to buy stock.
For many punters with COMMSEC, being the largest retail broker in Aus, it was almost impossible to apply via the broker offer. I'd be very interested in anyone who successfully applied via Commsec.
