And I don't want to bring further bad news to an already unpleasant situation for existing shareholders ....
But the real question we have to ask ourselves, is what will Cash Flow look like in FY16 & FY17? On the rough number I have done and broker forecasts I have seen, OCF will be around -$25m in FY16, whilst FY17 could be another harsh year as they resolve their working capital issues.
They then have to fund committed Cap Ex of ~$60m in 2H16 and ~$80m in FY17.
So taking Net Debt at 1H16 which was $110m, the weak OCF performance and these Cap Ex commitments, Net Debt at end FY16 will be ~$200m and could well blow out to $250-300m during FY17!!
Observations:
1) there is clearly massive volatility in WLDs earnings streams which management have very little ability to control (have a look at WLD's earnings back to 2010!!!!)
& 2) any recovery in WLD's earnings requires either A) a softening in cattle prices in Australia (this isn't happening for at least another 18 months according to the other major listed players) or B) some success in sourcing cheaper cattle, after adjusting for transport & feed costs, in South America (yet to be convinced on that and represents a pretty major change in WLD's strategy as per prospectus)
Given the above, WLD appears to be carrying way too much debt and would be crazy to pay dividends during the next 1 to 2 years .... and in fact, I think, will be forced by the banks to undertake another capital raise to resolve what appears to be a very unstable Balance Sheet.
Add to My Watchlist
What is My Watchlist?
