Yesterday I got called a bit enthusiastic regarding BGS current valuation, 44mc
and where we could end up.
So I went home and decided to throw together a NPV calc based off figures that were used in the Scoping study and paired it with our upgraded resource and added a carbonate plant. I haven't used figures that haven't been stated before so I am not exaggerating in any area.
Things of note for the doubters
- I turned the operation from 1mtpa to 1.5mtpa because of our upgraded resource
- I turned the 13 year mine life into 17 years (total 25.5mt resource)
- I used the sale price in the SS of $537/t for spod
- I used the OPEX figure in the SS of $326/t for spod (I would expect this to come down with economies of scale)
- I used the CAPEX of $125.1 million which is exactly 1.5 times that of the SS 1mtpa CAPEX cost.
- I reduced the concentrate from 190ktpa to 160ktpa per 1mt processed.
Then from year 5!!!
- Carbonate Plant starting from year 5, that allows the railway to be fully upgraded by then (railway upgrade starts in 42 days).
- I have a CAPEX of $150 million for the Carbonate Plant and have not discounted this at all.
- Carbonate plant producing 30ktpa of carbonate.
- I used the sale price of $14,000/t for carbonate (cheap by the current sale price of $22,000/t and expected future figures)
- I used the OPEX figure of $5,000/t (Michael Langford quoted $4,000/t, I have added $1,000/t to that just incase)
Also
- I have allowed for a 10% discount rate every year (AJM used 8% in their PFS, PLS used 10% in their PFS).
- I have taken 30% tax out post discount rate.
- Converted to AUD from USD using a FX rate of 1.33.
- I have not allowed for dilution, yes it's inevitable but no NPV allows for dilution.
View attachment 671646
That gives an NPV POST TAX of $1.14 BILLION
At the current market cap of 44 million we look to be pretty good value don't we!!!!!!
(20min delay)