I accidentally applied high spodumene price which is still lower than Chinese affordable limit of US$1,938 according one of the Chinese biggest broker houses analyst report.
(The following article was directly translated by Google, having some grammar and translation errors.)
The brightest star in the night sky have Takayuki "Lithium"
At 14:39 on April 12 2016 Business Club
Business Club April 12 hearing
Supply is still a high degree of monopoly
Global lithium resource supply still continues height monopoly situation, in 2015 the global lithium salt production was 16.3 million tons, an increase of 5.8%, three brine manufacturers --SQM, Albemarle (Albemarle), FMC Lithium in the global market share, respectively, accounting for 24 %, 18%, 12%, accounted for 54% of total global lithium market share, compared to 2014, 61% of the share, a slight decline. An ore Talison ( Tianqi Lithium Industries (171.41, 14.63,9.33%) 51%, Accor holding 49% of shares), relying on strong demand from China, market share of about 30%, three brine + a total mine supply about 84% of the global market.
China's lithium processing of raw materials imported. China's output of lithium accounted for 38%, but the domestic lithium salt heavily dependent on imported raw materials for processing in 2015, China imported 410,000 tons of spodumene concentrate, an increase of 19%, almost entirely from the inlet portion Taliesin Mining (Tianqi Lithium Industries 51%). Although there are rich mines and brine deposits, but no large-scale development and production.
Huge foreign sale prices rose spodumene space. According to the industry in general consumption, materials, amortization, we made a calculation. An industrial grade lithium carbonate price is now 150,000 yuan / ton, plus a lithium salt plant on behalf of 20% gross margin, spodumene affordable price line is 12,645 yuan / ton, or US$1,938 / ton.
Under the contract lithium Galaxy Resources and domestic manufacturers signed in 2016 spodumene quarry price will rise to $ 600 / ton, up 40%, but the future is still a huge upside. It can be seen, after the price of quarry spodumene, a lithium salt margin rapidly.
Two lithium industry upstart, developing exciting. Qrocobre has 15 salt lakes, the current focus on development projects 4, the company was officially put into operation in 2015, the current production capacity of 17,500 tons / year, 1,2 two months of 2016 the company's production has increased considerably, and are higher than expected, according to the company conservatively expects 2016 annual output of 9000-10000 tons. Galaxy Resources has three mines, which MtCattlin mine in 2016 to provide 60,000 tons of lithium-hui quarry for the Chinese enterprises, the company will restart production of the end of March 2016, and in July the first shipment.
Lithium dark horse frequent, brine and mining flourishing. Upstream development projects in recent years, lithium surge, there are 26 major global, eight brine, 18 minerals, including lithium salt production enterprises are mainly concentrated in the country. Lithium supply business flourishing, such as Gan Feng Li (59.39, 3.74, 6.72%) RIM acquisition of the layout of upstream resources, into the Czech Republic shares the resumption of production downtime to be like, and broad development prospects.
Lithium lithium demand strong pull
2015 global lithium demand of 17 million tons in recent years, average annual growth of about 6%. Total lithium consumption of up to 78,700 tons, an increase of 19.6%, accounting for 46% of the world total.
With the rapid development of new energy vehicles, lithium demand proportion of total demand in 2003 has been increased from 13% to 51%, it has become a major factor in stimulating demand for lithium.
The rapid development of new energy vehicles. 2014 is the first year of the new energy vehicle development in 2015 is a true high-speed growth. According to the Ministry statistics, in 2015 China's new energy automobile cumulative production 379,100, an increase of 4 times. From the overall structure, mainly of pure electric cars, accounting for 76.75%. Rapid growth of new energy vehicles have become the main reason for the surge in demand for lithium.
Lithium carbonate prices, on the middle reaches of the industry more than the terminal. Midstream cathode materials and electrolyte lithium battery manufacturers in the whole industry chain position is very similar, are overcapacity or flexible production itself there is no absolute technical bottlenecks and capacity bottlenecks. Therefore, when the upstream raw material prices, it is difficult to the downstream transmission, resulting in gross profit margin to drop sharply.For the terminal industry, accounting for about 11% of lithium carbonate lithium battery cell vehicle cost, accounting for about 8% of the battery pack, about 4% of the vehicle, the proportion is still relatively small.
2016 lithium salt is still in short supply. With the new energy vehicles driven surge in demand for power in the field of lithium, lithium and other areas (3C, storage, etc.) Lithium steady growth in demand, the global lithium demand continued to show an upward trend, we expect 2016 total global lithium demand of 193 400 ton, an increase of 14% compared to the total supply of 191,600 tons in 2016, there are still nearly 2,000 tons gap.
The first half of 2016, prices continue to rise, the need to see the second half of spodumene supply situation. As of April 5, 2016, industrial-grade lithium carbonate price of grid 139,000-147,000 yuan / ton, the chain increased by 1.4%, an increase of 235%; the price of battery grade lithium carbonate 167,000-176,000 yuan / ton, the chain increased 0.6% , an increase of 250%. Due to various demand growth in the first half of 2016, a lithium salt supply is still tight, the price trend is up. While the second half will be important Aspect spodumene supply situation Galaxy Resources to see whether it can meet the rapid growth in demand for lithium. But the new energy vehicles are usually red by the end of production, so supply and demand in the second half is expected to remain tight, lithium prices will continue to rise.
(Source: Haitong Securities)
(20min delay)