NPV valuation

Here is a little discounted cashflow valuation using published figures; the 2024+ figures assumes no further growth and thus discounts the final net cashflow in perpetuity. We get a price of $7.66 in the basic case, $14.89 using a lower discount rate and $20.46 in an optimistic case.

Base case using current figures, 10% discount rate
$m	revenue growth at 44% for 5 years then flat and rest in perpetuity
	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024+	Total
Revenue	72	104	149	215	310	446	642
GM %	82%	82%	82%	82%	82%	82%	82%
GP	59	85	122	176	254	366	526
Fixed costs	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72
Profit	-13	13	50	104	182	294	454
tax	0	-4	-15	-31	-55	-88	-136
PL (cashflow)	-13	9	35	73	127	205	318
Disc factor (10%)	0.91	0.83	0.75	0.68	0.62	0.56	0.1
NPV	-12	8	27	50	79	116	3,181	3,448
shares on issue								450
share price								$7.66
Base case using current figures, 5% discount rate
$m	revenue growth at 44% for 5 years then flat and rest in perpetuity
	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024+	Total
Revenue	72	104	149	215	310	446	642
GM %	82%	82%	82%	82%	82%	82%	82%
GP	59	85	122	176	254	366	526
Fixed costs	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72
Profit	-13	13	50	104	182	294	454
tax	0	-4	-15	-31	-55	-88	-136
PL (cashflow)	-13	9	35	73	127	205	318
Disc factor (10%)	0.95	0.91	0.86	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.05
NPV	-12	8	30	60	100	153	6,362	6,701
shares on issue								450
share price								$14.89
optimistic case using optimistic figures, 5% discount rate
$m	revenue growth at 50% for 5 years then flat and rest in perpetuity
	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024+	Total
Revenue	72	108	162	243	365	547	820
GM %	85%	85%	85%	85%	85%	85%	85%
GP	61	92	138	207	310	465	697
Fixed costs	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72
Profit	-11	20	66	135	238	393	625
tax	0	-6	-20	-40	-71	-118	-188
PL (cashflow)	-11	14	46	94	166	275	438
Disc factor (10%)	0.95	0.91	0.86	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.05
sqd	1	2	3	4	5	6
NPV	-10	13	40	77	130	205	8,751	9,207
shares on issue								450
share price								$20.46