Here is a little discounted cashflow valuation using published figures; the 2024+ figures assumes no further growth and thus discounts the final net cashflow in perpetuity. We get a price of $7.66 in the basic case, $14.89 using a lower discount rate and $20.46 in an optimistic case.
Base case using current figures, 10% discount rate $m revenue growth at 44% for 5 years then flat and rest in perpetuity 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024+ Total Revenue 72 104 149 215 310 446 642 GM % 82% 82% 82% 82% 82% 82% 82% GP 59 85 122 176 254 366 526 Fixed costs -72 -72 -72 -72 -72 -72 -72 Profit -13 13 50 104 182 294 454 tax 0 -4 -15 -31 -55 -88 -136 PL (cashflow) -13 9 35 73 127 205 318 Disc factor (10%) 0.91 0.83 0.75 0.68 0.62 0.56 0.1 NPV -12 8 27 50 79 116 3,181 3,448 shares on issue 450 share price $7.66 Base case using current figures, 5% discount rate $m revenue growth at 44% for 5 years then flat and rest in perpetuity 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024+ Total Revenue 72 104 149 215 310 446 642 GM % 82% 82% 82% 82% 82% 82% 82% GP 59 85 122 176 254 366 526 Fixed costs -72 -72 -72 -72 -72 -72 -72 Profit -13 13 50 104 182 294 454 tax 0 -4 -15 -31 -55 -88 -136 PL (cashflow) -13 9 35 73 127 205 318 Disc factor (10%) 0.95 0.91 0.86 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.05 NPV -12 8 30 60 100 153 6,362 6,701 shares on issue 450 share price $14.89 optimistic case using optimistic figures, 5% discount rate $m revenue growth at 50% for 5 years then flat and rest in perpetuity 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024+ Total Revenue 72 108 162 243 365 547 820 GM % 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% GP 61 92 138 207 310 465 697 Fixed costs -72 -72 -72 -72 -72 -72 -72 Profit -11 20 66 135 238 393 625 tax 0 -6 -20 -40 -71 -118 -188 PL (cashflow) -11 14 46 94 166 275 438 Disc factor (10%) 0.95 0.91 0.86 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.05 sqd 1 2 3 4 5 6 NPV -10 13 40 77 130 205 8,751 9,207 shares on issue 450 share price $20.46
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