Here is a little discounted cashflow valuation using published figures; the 2024+ figures assumes no further growth and thus discounts the final net cashflow in perpetuity. We get a price of $7.66 in the basic case, $14.89 using a lower discount rate and $20.46 in an optimistic case.
Base case using current figures, 10% discount rate
$m
revenue growth at 44% for 5 years then flat and rest in perpetuity
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024+
Total
Revenue
72
104
149
215
310
446
642
GM %
82%
82%
82%
82%
82%
82%
82%
GP
59
85
122
176
254
366
526
Fixed costs
-72
-72
-72
-72
-72
-72
-72
Profit
-13
13
50
104
182
294
454
tax
0
-4
-15
-31
-55
-88
-136
PL (cashflow)
-13
9
35
73
127
205
318
Disc factor (10%)
0.91
0.83
0.75
0.68
0.62
0.56
0.1
NPV
-12
8
27
50
79
116
3,181
3,448
shares on issue
450
share price
$7.66
Base case using current figures, 5% discount rate
$m
revenue growth at 44% for 5 years then flat and rest in perpetuity
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024+
Total
Revenue
72
104
149
215
310
446
642
GM %
82%
82%
82%
82%
82%
82%
82%
GP
59
85
122
176
254
366
526
Fixed costs
-72
-72
-72
-72
-72
-72
-72
Profit
-13
13
50
104
182
294
454
tax
0
-4
-15
-31
-55
-88
-136
PL (cashflow)
-13
9
35
73
127
205
318
Disc factor (10%)
0.95
0.91
0.86
0.82
0.78
0.75
0.05
NPV
-12
8
30
60
100
153
6,362
6,701
shares on issue
450
share price
$14.89
optimistic case using optimistic figures, 5% discount rate
$m
revenue growth at 50% for 5 years then flat and rest in perpetuity
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024+
Total
Revenue
72
108
162
243
365
547
820
GM %
85%
85%
85%
85%
85%
85%
85%
GP
61
92
138
207
310
465
697
Fixed costs
-72
-72
-72
-72
-72
-72
-72
Profit
-11
20
66
135
238
393
625
tax
0
-6
-20
-40
-71
-118
-188
PL (cashflow)
-11
14
46
94
166
275
438
Disc factor (10%)
0.95
0.91
0.86
0.82
0.78
0.75
0.05
sqd
1
2
3
4
5
6
NPV
-10
13
40
77
130
205
8,751
9,207
shares on issue
450
share price
$20.46
NEA Price at posting:
$3.56 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held