NPV valuation, page-2

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reg

602 Posts.

10/05/19

10:19

Post #: 38501410

Originally posted by DR SHARES ↑

Here is a little discounted cashflow valuation using published figures; the 2024+ figures assumes no further growth and thus discounts the final net cashflow in perpetuity. We get a price of $7.66 in the basic case, $14.89 using a lower discount rate and $20.46 in an optimistic case.

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Column 7 Column 8 Column 9

1 Base case using current figures, 10% discount rate

2 $m revenue growth at 44% for 5 years then flat and rest in perpetuity

3 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024+ Total

4 Revenue 72 104 149 215 310 446 642

5 GM % 82% 82% 82% 82% 82% 82% 82%

6 GP 59 85 122 176 254 366 526

7 Fixed costs -72 -72 -72 -72 -72 -72 -72

8 Profit -13 13 50 104 182 294 454

9 tax -4 -15 -31 -55 -88 -136

10 PL (cashflow) -13 9 35 73 127 205 318

11 Disc factor (10%) 0.91 0.83 0.75 0.68 0.62 0.56 0.1

12 NPV - 12 8 27 50 79 116 3,181 3,448

13 shares on issue 450

14 share price $ 7.66

15

16 Base case using current figures, 5% discount rate

17 $m revenue growth at 44% for 5 years then flat and rest in perpetuity

18 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024+ Total

19 Revenue 72 104 149 215 310 446 642

20 GM % 82% 82% 82% 82% 82% 82% 82%

21 GP 59 85 122 176 254 366 526

22 Fixed costs -72 -72 -72 -72 -72 -72 -72

23 Profit -13 13 50 104 182 294 454

24 tax -4 -15 -31 -55 -88 -136

25 PL (cashflow) -13 9 35 73 127 205 318

26 Disc factor (10%) 0.95 0.91 0.86 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.05

27 NPV - 12 8 30 60 100 153 6,362 6,701

28 shares on issue 450

29 share price $14.89

30

31 optimistic case using optimistic figures, 5% discount rate

32 $m revenue growth at 50% for 5 years then flat and rest in perpetuity

33 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024+ Total

34 Revenue 72 108 162 243 365 547 820

35 GM % 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85%

36 GP 61 92 138 207 310 465 697

37 Fixed costs -72 -72 -72 -72 -72 -72 -72

38 Profit -11 20 66 135 238 393 625

39 tax -6 -20 -40 -71 -118 -188

40 PL (cashflow) -11 14 46 94 166 275 438

41 Disc factor (10%) 0.95 0.91 0.86 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.05

42 sqd 1 2 3 4 5 6

43 NPV - 10 13 40 77 130 205 8,751 9,207

44 shares on issue 450

45 share price $20.46

Expand

Where are these figures published? I have Fy 18 revenue as $54.14m not $72m, and Fy 19 revenue is more likely around the $75m-$80m rather than $104.

Last edited by reg: 10/05/19

NEA Price at posting: $3.58 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held

1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4	Column 5	Column 6	Column 7	Column 8	Column 9
1	Base case using current figures, 10% discount rate
2	$m	revenue growth at 44% for 5 years then flat and rest in perpetuity
3		2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024+	Total
4	Revenue	72	104	149	215	310	446	642
5	GM %	82%	82%	82%	82%	82%	82%	82%
6	GP	59	85	122	176	254	366	526
7	Fixed costs	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72
8	Profit	-13	13	50	104	182	294	454
9	tax		-4	-15	-31	-55	-88	-136
10	PL (cashflow)	-13	9	35	73	127	205	318
11	Disc factor (10%)	0.91	0.83	0.75	0.68	0.62	0.56	0.1
12	NPV	- 12	8	27	50	79	116	3,181	3,448
13	shares on issue								450
14	share price								$ 7.66
15
16	Base case using current figures, 5% discount rate
17	$m	revenue growth at 44% for 5 years then flat and rest in perpetuity
18		2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024+	Total
19	Revenue	72	104	149	215	310	446	642
20	GM %	82%	82%	82%	82%	82%	82%	82%
21	GP	59	85	122	176	254	366	526
22	Fixed costs	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72
23	Profit	-13	13	50	104	182	294	454
24	tax		-4	-15	-31	-55	-88	-136
25	PL (cashflow)	-13	9	35	73	127	205	318
26	Disc factor (10%)	0.95	0.91	0.86	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.05
27	NPV	- 12	8	30	60	100	153	6,362	6,701
28	shares on issue								450
29	share price								$14.89
30
31	optimistic case using optimistic figures, 5% discount rate
32	$m	revenue growth at 50% for 5 years then flat and rest in perpetuity
33		2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024+	Total
34	Revenue	72	108	162	243	365	547	820
35	GM %	85%	85%	85%	85%	85%	85%	85%
36	GP	61	92	138	207	310	465	697
37	Fixed costs	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72
38	Profit	-11	20	66	135	238	393	625
39	tax		-6	-20	-40	-71	-118	-188
40	PL (cashflow)	-11	14	46	94	166	275	438
41	Disc factor (10%)	0.95	0.91	0.86	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.05
42	sqd	1	2	3	4	5	6
43	NPV	- 10	13	40	77	130	205	8,751	9,207
44	shares on issue								450
45	share price								$20.46

NPV valuation, page-2

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