Where are these figures published? I have Fy 18 revenue as...

First 2 Last

reg

598 Posts.

10/05/19

10:19

Post #: 38501410

Originally posted by DR SHARES ↑

Here is a little discounted cashflow valuation using published figures; the 2024+ figures assumes no further growth and thus discounts the final net cashflow in perpetuity. We get a price of $7.66 in the basic case, $14.89 using a lower discount rate and $20.46 in an optimistic case.

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Column 7 Column 8 Column 9

1 Base case using current figures, 10% discount rate

2 $m revenue growth at 44% for 5 years then flat and rest in perpetuity

3 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024+ Total

4 Revenue 72 104 149 215 310 446 642

5 GM % 82% 82% 82% 82% 82% 82% 82%

6 GP 59 85 122 176 254 366 526

7 Fixed costs -72 -72 -72 -72 -72 -72 -72

8 Profit -13 13 50 104 182 294 454

9 tax -4 -15 -31 -55 -88 -136

10 PL (cashflow) -13 9 35 73 127 205 318

11 Disc factor (10%) 0.91 0.83 0.75 0.68 0.62 0.56 0.1

12 NPV - 12 8 27 50 79 116 3,181 3,448

13 shares on issue 450

14 share price $ 7.66

15

16 Base case using current figures, 5% discount rate

17 $m revenue growth at 44% for 5 years then flat and rest in perpetuity

18 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024+ Total

19 Revenue 72 104 149 215 310 446 642

20 GM % 82% 82% 82% 82% 82% 82% 82%

21 GP 59 85 122 176 254 366 526

22 Fixed costs -72 -72 -72 -72 -72 -72 -72

23 Profit -13 13 50 104 182 294 454

24 tax -4 -15 -31 -55 -88 -136

25 PL (cashflow) -13 9 35 73 127 205 318

26 Disc factor (10%) 0.95 0.91 0.86 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.05

27 NPV - 12 8 30 60 100 153 6,362 6,701

28 shares on issue 450

29 share price $14.89

30

31 optimistic case using optimistic figures, 5% discount rate

32 $m revenue growth at 50% for 5 years then flat and rest in perpetuity

33 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024+ Total

34 Revenue 72 108 162 243 365 547 820

35 GM % 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85%

36 GP 61 92 138 207 310 465 697

37 Fixed costs -72 -72 -72 -72 -72 -72 -72

38 Profit -11 20 66 135 238 393 625

39 tax -6 -20 -40 -71 -118 -188

40 PL (cashflow) -11 14 46 94 166 275 438

41 Disc factor (10%) 0.95 0.91 0.86 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.05

42 sqd 1 2 3 4 5 6

43 NPV - 10 13 40 77 130 205 8,751 9,207

44 shares on issue 450

45 share price $20.46

Expand

Where are these figures published? I have Fy 18 revenue as $54.14m not $72m, and Fy 19 revenue is more likely around the $75m-$80m rather than $104.

Last edited by reg: 10/05/19

NEA Price at posting: $3.58 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held

1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Top Stories

DEL

Delorean unlocks $30M through Tanarra finance facility for bioenergy projects

ADH

Adairs MD and CEO steps down after 17 years in company management

SRN

Copper and zinc zone prove exciting news for Surefire close to WA's Yidby

FEG

China's Xingye snags 19.99% stake in Far East Gold, eyeing latter's Indonesian gold play

Is the ASX getting its groove back? Here's 5 IPOs in September to watch

There are more pages in this discussion • 16 more messages in this thread...

First 2 Last

Add NEA (ASX) to my watchlist

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4	Column 5	Column 6	Column 7	Column 8	Column 9
1	Base case using current figures, 10% discount rate
2	$m	revenue growth at 44% for 5 years then flat and rest in perpetuity
3		2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024+	Total
4	Revenue	72	104	149	215	310	446	642
5	GM %	82%	82%	82%	82%	82%	82%	82%
6	GP	59	85	122	176	254	366	526
7	Fixed costs	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72
8	Profit	-13	13	50	104	182	294	454
9	tax		-4	-15	-31	-55	-88	-136
10	PL (cashflow)	-13	9	35	73	127	205	318
11	Disc factor (10%)	0.91	0.83	0.75	0.68	0.62	0.56	0.1
12	NPV	- 12	8	27	50	79	116	3,181	3,448
13	shares on issue								450
14	share price								$ 7.66
15
16	Base case using current figures, 5% discount rate
17	$m	revenue growth at 44% for 5 years then flat and rest in perpetuity
18		2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024+	Total
19	Revenue	72	104	149	215	310	446	642
20	GM %	82%	82%	82%	82%	82%	82%	82%
21	GP	59	85	122	176	254	366	526
22	Fixed costs	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72
23	Profit	-13	13	50	104	182	294	454
24	tax		-4	-15	-31	-55	-88	-136
25	PL (cashflow)	-13	9	35	73	127	205	318
26	Disc factor (10%)	0.95	0.91	0.86	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.05
27	NPV	- 12	8	30	60	100	153	6,362	6,701
28	shares on issue								450
29	share price								$14.89
30
31	optimistic case using optimistic figures, 5% discount rate
32	$m	revenue growth at 50% for 5 years then flat and rest in perpetuity
33		2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024+	Total
34	Revenue	72	108	162	243	365	547	820
35	GM %	85%	85%	85%	85%	85%	85%	85%
36	GP	61	92	138	207	310	465	697
37	Fixed costs	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72
38	Profit	-11	20	66	135	238	393	625
39	tax		-6	-20	-40	-71	-118	-188
40	PL (cashflow)	-11	14	46	94	166	275	438
41	Disc factor (10%)	0.95	0.91	0.86	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.05
42	sqd	1	2	3	4	5	6
43	NPV	- 10	13	40	77	130	205	8,751	9,207
44	shares on issue								450
45	share price								$20.46

Where are these figures published? I have Fy 18 revenue as...

Top Stories

Delorean unlocks $30M through Tanarra finance facility for bioenergy projects

Adairs MD and CEO steps down after 17 years in company management

Copper and zinc zone prove exciting news for Surefire close to WA's Yidby

China's Xingye snags 19.99% stake in Far East Gold, eyeing latter's Indonesian gold play

Is the ASX getting its groove back? Here's 5 IPOs in September to watch

Featured News