NPV valuation, page-7

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reg

599 Posts.

10/05/19

12:48

Post #: 38505757

Originally posted by DR SHARES ↑

NPV with 60%, 40% and 20% growth (vs base at 44% current rate: value is $7.66.share)

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Column 7 Column 8 Column 9

0 case using current figures, 10% discount rate

1 $m revenue growth at 60% for 5 years then flat and rest in perpetuity

2 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025+ Total

3 Revenue 72 115 184 295 472 755 1208

4 GM % 82% 82% 82% 82% 82% 82% 82%

5 GP 59 94 151 242 387 619 991

6 Fixed costs -72 -72 -72 -72 -72 -72 -72

7 Profit -13 22 79 170 315 547 919

8 tax -7 -24 -51 -94 -164 -276

9 PL (cashflow) -13 16 55 119 220 383 643

10 Disc factor (10%) 0.91 0.83 0.75 0.68 0.62 0.56 0.1

11 NPV - 12 13 42 81 137 216 6,430 6,907

12 shares on issue 450

13 share price $15.35

14

15 case using current figures, 10% discount rate

16 $m revenue growth at 40% for 5 years then flat and rest in perpetuity

17 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025+ Total

18 Revenue 72 101 141 198 277 387 542

19 GM % 82% 82% 82% 82% 82% 82% 82%

20 GP 59 83 116 162 227 318 445

21 Fixed costs -72 -72 -72 -72 -72 -72 -72

22 Profit -13 11 44 90 155 246 373

23 tax -3 -13 -27 -46 -74 -112

24 PL (cashflow) -13 7 31 63 108 172 261

25 Disc factor (10%) 0.91 0.83 0.75 0.68 0.62 0.56 0.10

26 NPV - 12 6 23 43 67 97 2,608 2,833

27 shares on issue 450

28 share price $ 6.29

29

30 case using current figures, 10% discount rate

31 $m revenue growth at 20% for 5 years then flat and rest in perpetuity

32 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025+ Total

33 Revenue 72 86 104 124 149 179 215

34 GM % 82% 82% 82% 82% 82% 82% 82%

35 GP 59 71 85 102 122 147 176

36 Fixed costs -72 -72 -72 -72 -72 -72 -72

37 Profit -13 -1 13 30 50 75 104

38 tax -4 -9 -15 -22 -31

39 PL (cashflow) -13 -1 9 21 35 52 73

40 Disc factor (10%) 0.91 0.83 0.75 0.68 0.62 0.56 0.10

41 NPV - 12 - 1 7 14 22 30 730 790

42 shares on issue 450

43 share price $ 1.76

Expand

Thanks for your work Dr S. I'm roughly in the 40% growth section until about 2022, with % growth diminishing (but still solid) thereafter.

NEA Price at posting: $3.56 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held

1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4	Column 5	Column 6	Column 7	Column 8	Column 9
0	case using current figures, 10% discount rate
1	$m	revenue growth at 60% for 5 years then flat and rest in perpetuity
2		2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025+	Total
3	Revenue	72	115	184	295	472	755	1208
4	GM %	82%	82%	82%	82%	82%	82%	82%
5	GP	59	94	151	242	387	619	991
6	Fixed costs	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72
7	Profit	-13	22	79	170	315	547	919
8	tax		-7	-24	-51	-94	-164	-276
9	PL (cashflow)	-13	16	55	119	220	383	643
10	Disc factor (10%)	0.91	0.83	0.75	0.68	0.62	0.56	0.1
11	NPV	- 12	13	42	81	137	216	6,430	6,907
12	shares on issue								450
13	share price								$15.35
14
15	case using current figures, 10% discount rate
16	$m	revenue growth at 40% for 5 years then flat and rest in perpetuity
17		2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025+	Total
18	Revenue	72	101	141	198	277	387	542
19	GM %	82%	82%	82%	82%	82%	82%	82%
20	GP	59	83	116	162	227	318	445
21	Fixed costs	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72
22	Profit	-13	11	44	90	155	246	373
23	tax		-3	-13	-27	-46	-74	-112
24	PL (cashflow)	-13	7	31	63	108	172	261
25	Disc factor (10%)	0.91	0.83	0.75	0.68	0.62	0.56	0.10
26	NPV	- 12	6	23	43	67	97	2,608	2,833
27	shares on issue								450
28	share price								$ 6.29
29
30	case using current figures, 10% discount rate
31	$m	revenue growth at 20% for 5 years then flat and rest in perpetuity
32		2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025+	Total
33	Revenue	72	86	104	124	149	179	215
34	GM %	82%	82%	82%	82%	82%	82%	82%
35	GP	59	71	85	102	122	147	176
36	Fixed costs	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72
37	Profit	-13	-1	13	30	50	75	104
38	tax			-4	-9	-15	-22	-31
39	PL (cashflow)	-13	-1	9	21	35	52	73
40	Disc factor (10%)	0.91	0.83	0.75	0.68	0.62	0.56	0.10
41	NPV	- 12	- 1	7	14	22	30	730	790
42	shares on issue								450
43	share price								$ 1.76

NPV valuation, page-7

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