NPV valuation, page-9

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Sauer

39 Posts.

10/05/19

13:05

Post #: 38506144

Originally posted by DR SHARES: ↑
NPV with 60%, 40% and 20% growth (vs base at 44% current rate: value is $7.66.share)

case using current figures, 10% discount rate

$m revenue growth at 60% for 5 years then flat and rest in perpetuity

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025+ Total
Revenue 72 115 184 295 472 755 1208
GM % 82% 82% 82% 82% 82% 82% 82%
GP 59 94 151 242 387 619 991
Fixed costs -72 -72 -72 -72 -72 -72 -72
Profit -13 22 79 170 315 547 919
tax 0 -7 -24 -51 -94 -164 -276
PL (cashflow) -13 16 55 119 220 383 643
Disc factor (10%) 0.91 0.83 0.75 0.68 0.62 0.56 0.1
NPV -12 13 42 81 137 216 6,430 6,907
shares on issue

450
share price

$15.35

case using current figures, 10% discount rate

$m revenue growth at 40% for 5 years then flat and rest in perpetuity

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025+ Total
Revenue 72 101 141 198 277 387 542
GM % 82% 82% 82% 82% 82% 82% 82%
GP 59 83 116 162 227 318 445
Fixed costs -72 -72 -72 -72 -72 -72 -72
Profit -13 11 44 90 155 246 373
tax 0 -3 -13 -27 -46 -74 -112
PL (cashflow) -13 7 31 63 108 172 261
Disc factor (10%) 0.91 0.83 0.75 0.68 0.62 0.56 0.10
NPV -12 6 23 43 67 97 2,608 2,833
shares on issue

450
share price

$6.29

case using current figures, 10% discount rate

$m revenue growth at 20% for 5 years then flat and rest in perpetuity

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025+ Total
Revenue 72 86 104 124 149 179 215
GM % 82% 82% 82% 82% 82% 82% 82%
GP 59 71 85 102 122 147 176
Fixed costs -72 -72 -72 -72 -72 -72 -72
Profit -13 -1 13 30 50 75 104
tax 0 0 -4 -9 -15 -22 -31
PL (cashflow) -13 -1 9 21 35 52 73
Disc factor (10%) 0.91 0.83 0.75 0.68 0.62 0.56 0.10
NPV -12 -1 7 14 22 30 730 790
shares on issue

450
share price

$1.76
Expand
can anyone point me to a business that has successfully defended an 82% profit margin in perpetuity without competition taking it away?

NEA Price at posting: $3.58 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held

1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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case using current figures, 10% discount rate
$m	revenue growth at 60% for 5 years then flat and rest in perpetuity
	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025+	Total
Revenue	72	115	184	295	472	755	1208
GM %	82%	82%	82%	82%	82%	82%	82%
GP	59	94	151	242	387	619	991
Fixed costs	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72
Profit	-13	22	79	170	315	547	919
tax	0	-7	-24	-51	-94	-164	-276
PL (cashflow)	-13	16	55	119	220	383	643
Disc factor (10%)	0.91	0.83	0.75	0.68	0.62	0.56	0.1
NPV	-12	13	42	81	137	216	6,430	6,907
shares on issue								450
share price								$15.35

case using current figures, 10% discount rate
$m	revenue growth at 40% for 5 years then flat and rest in perpetuity
	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025+	Total
Revenue	72	101	141	198	277	387	542
GM %	82%	82%	82%	82%	82%	82%	82%
GP	59	83	116	162	227	318	445
Fixed costs	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72
Profit	-13	11	44	90	155	246	373
tax	0	-3	-13	-27	-46	-74	-112
PL (cashflow)	-13	7	31	63	108	172	261
Disc factor (10%)	0.91	0.83	0.75	0.68	0.62	0.56	0.10
NPV	-12	6	23	43	67	97	2,608	2,833
shares on issue								450
share price								$6.29

case using current figures, 10% discount rate
$m	revenue growth at 20% for 5 years then flat and rest in perpetuity
	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025+	Total
Revenue	72	86	104	124	149	179	215
GM %	82%	82%	82%	82%	82%	82%	82%
GP	59	71	85	102	122	147	176
Fixed costs	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72	-72
Profit	-13	-1	13	30	50	75	104
tax	0	0	-4	-9	-15	-22	-31
PL (cashflow)	-13	-1	9	21	35	52	73
Disc factor (10%)	0.91	0.83	0.75	0.68	0.62	0.56	0.10
NPV	-12	-1	7	14	22	30	730	790
shares on issue								450
share price								$1.76

NPV valuation, page-9

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