Currently I don't own any shares but am thinking of buying a couple. I have done a calculation for the company and would be interested in getting your thoughts on what I have prepared.
I have analysed the TDO Announcement dated 14/01/14 re Independent Reserves Assessment for West Seahorse (WSH) Oil Field and I have come up with a NPV of US$0.89 per TDO share which is significantly higher that the existing share price of approx. AUD$0.105
My calculations (in US$) are based on the following:
West Seahorse Oil Field (mid case 10.3M barrels)
Total Revenue $958M
Total Costs $230M
Term - Life of Field 5 yrs
Capital Cost $140M
Discount rate 9%
NPV$426.3M * 49.9% (TDO entitlement in JV) *237,523,000 (TDO shares on issue)= USD$0.89 or AUD$0.98 per share
The high case for the WSH oil field is 33.4M barrels, hence NPV would be 3 times higher at approx AUD$2.94 per share
This NPV doesn't take into account TDO's Otway Basin gas field.
TDO looks like a good investment to me with possible production starting early 2015. What do you reckon of this quick calculation?
TDO Price at posting:
10.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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