"That is why I would no way be backing TNT at this time, and certainly NOT at this price".
No way, I wouldn't either. (But late March and early April presented decent opportunities).
Anyway, drifting back to VOR the real apple of our collective eye ...
Jeff has been reflecting/hinting/talking of divesting TSI for almost 2 years now and the line about on the lookout for acquisitions is getting old. If the TSI valuation was increasing maybe I'd be more accepting, but it's not. It feels like we are on a promise.
In the meantime others have spotted the same opportunity that VOR has seen and they too are prepared to have a crack.
I'm sure Jeff will have a crack again when he's ready, but ... sometimes tomorrow never comes.
As for "Placing acquisition costs and interest costs as adjustments gives you a sense of whats really happening behind the scenes with TNT" we could all well reflect on some things Jeff did last year.
In particular "With the current cash balance and the cash flow from just the existing contracts, the Company expects to have sufficient cash to fund the next two payments to the C10 vendors without necessarily relying on the exercise of outstanding options or additional external funding".
As we now know, that didn't prove to be the case and "necessarily" is a much more potent word than I ever thought.
We all know Companies say and do things all the time for all sorts of reasons, especially around making themselves look good in the short term. I wish it didn't happen, but it does and investors have to rely on their instincts and experience, just as you have outlined.
For example - today's video touched on a number of things. Like the $2.4m profit figure and how it was derived. It also touched on the flat-lining of revenues and how small companies can achieve good YOY growth before things begin to taper. This is an issue that both VOR & TNT potentially face as they roll up. Is it better to have 700 clients or 10 clients? Could some of our 10 clients have been impacted due to Covid - Sydney Airport, Origin, Monash Uni etc?
As Jonkey touched on, the video was sort of refreshing in its own way.
For the record:
- I like how Jeff put his $500k in a few years ago, when not too many others would
- and from a near empty holding company he has made solid progress
- He's picked a solid industry with clear growth potential but there have been mistakes along the way
- He's laid a solid foundation to build on but as the video stated what happens if you lose 1 or 2 key contracts?
Now we wait to see what happens next. We should learn a lot in the next month.
I believe Jeff can take it to another level, but I'm yet to be convinced he can build a skyscraper.
