I like the way you calculated it but even then I think those numbers are too high.
* There are still lots of users who use the anonymous Opal Cards, they won't transfer to the virtual card.
* The virtual card "experience" is significantly different. You won't have a real-time balance control or reporting and you'll get a set of transactions on your bank statement that may be aggregated (multiple journeys) or not.
* You can already tap on with a credit card, what does the virtual card offer over that? (trip tracking, but not much more)
I think they'll capture 10-15% of transactions at best, but that's just a guess.
I like the way you calculated it but even then I think those...
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