I'm trying to work out what is caused by the fluctuation in the...

I'm trying to work out what is caused by the fluctuation in the NTA/SP ratio. My theory is that there are two predominant factors at play;
1) demand for dividends - this would cause the SP to go above the NTA in the short term. There doesn't appear to be an instantaneous decline in the ratio post record date (possibly investors don't want to take the capital hit and wait a month or so for the sp to recover)
2) general market conditions - I think that ARG lags the market. When other stocks are going up, money flows into these stocks. In the medium term this leads to a large gap between NTA and the SP - which then eventually closes.

At the moment the NTA has recovered strongly and ARG's SP is only beginning to recover (note, my April NTA is an estimated figure based on the All Ords performance. It'd be possible to test my theory with a model - if I had a good data source, it'd make life easier.