Morning Folks,
It’s beyond doubt that NTI is a great company in the making here and it remains severely undervalued in which I think will be corrected soon and continue for a very strong 18 month plus.
This is a long post but please take the time to read it.
Here are some highlights and you will soon see why we are only just at the starting line in terms of SP growth. PS I hate mentioning other stocks on here but if I had to put NTI’s current position up against RAPs existing time line we would be sitting at 3.5 cents in the cycle and I personally believe we will get a similar run here if not more, then maintain and grow at large company growth rate. A few posters here including myself rode that one from 2-3 cents to as high as 56.
Italian distribution- The existing contract for Min 8700 units has a 68% margin. This margin is incredible and not to mention the more they make which is inevitable the more margin that will be realised. What I have not seen mentioned here once is the fact that if the distributor wants to maintain its exclusive status which by all accounts they do they will have to sell min 20,000 units by July 2019.
Let’s go though some calculations based on the information that I can confirm: (Option one they sell the min amount, note these figures are in AUD)
Wholesale cost to make= $951.00
$2451 RRP x 8700= $21,323,700 Revenue
$21,323,700 x 0.68 Margin= $14,500,000 Gross margin
(Option Two they meet the 20,000-unit target to maintain exclusive status)
Wholesale cost to make= $951.00 (could be even less at this stage)
$2451 RRP x 20,000= $49,020,000 Revenue
$49,323,700 x 0.68 Margin= $33,333,600 Gross margin
As you can see these figures are very impressive even in the lowest of cases. Even more mind boggling is that this is only based on one area of the platform and one distributor/country with scope for many more target areas and countries which will follow suite very near term. It is key to keep in mind that the current MC is 34 million which is ridiculously low even for the base case option one which is going to be smashed soon.
Tight register this is so beneficial as we have no sour grapes on board to make the churn go on and on we are now set with the most stable register I have seen to date.
Road shows coming up this will be a smash hit with the crowd especially at current depressed prices.
Flood of news flow to come on new regions and possible Italian extension.
Possible move subscription model providing upfront and annuity income streams.
Moving into a platform based setup with depression and epilepsy these are mammoth and near term I am really excited here. Mix this with analytics/big data in which we are the leader for in neuroscience and we will have some very large revenue streams in the 100’s of millions if not billions relatively quickly.
Peter Griffiths who is the Deputy Chair is a specialist in data and analytics had originally approached Neurotech about getting involved and joined the technical advisory committee of Neurotech.
Griffiths was involved with IBM Watson. He is actually more interested in the data that Neurotech is collecting and is convinced that it is unique and so valuable that at some stage the data will be worth a $billion. He has backed his theory up with a large shareholding, close to $1 million dollars in fact so obviously, he is not mucking around.
Commentary from last week’s trade show. “Medica is a very important event for us. It is one of the leading medical fairs in the world. We had very fruitful meetings with distribution companies and it was great to see a lot of interest in Mente Autism. We are looking forward to furthering our discussions with the aim of establishing Mente Autism in various countries,” CEO Wolfgang Storf said.
Now to the US clinical trials I can confirm the expected date of results is May 2017. These trials started in April 2016 and have had information on results added as recently as only 7 weeks ago. Basically, what is indicated so far is there is NO negative impact and the way I see it that it is a formality now and passing is inevitable. It is simply to prove the FDA have enough US based info to validate the product and offcourse this will happen as the other jurisdictions have slapped their equivalent stamp of approval against the same assessment criteria as their currently using.
The very important bit that has not been mentioned here is the fact that the Number One neuroscience institute in the US has taken this one on. The Carrick institute is a very well regarded institute and not only that but Prof. Frederick R Carrick himself has taken our trial on as the principle investigator which he does not always do by any means.
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