Further to my reply to @aushedsPost #:52871345 of 1/5/21:...“specs to meet their Chinese offtake agreement”
Do we know the full spec. for the JFMAG offtake? Where has it been publicly stated that NTU failed to meet that spec.? It’s been stated in several posts on this forum that JFMAG dumped the offtake as NTU could not meet the spec. but is there any proof of this claim? All I can find is the 6/8/2019 NTU announcement that states that NTU terminated the agreement due to “JFMAG being in breach of the agreement and not rectifying the breach within the required timeframe.”
As NTU consummated the thyssenkrupp offtake agreement within a week of the JFMAG agreement being terminated, I think it is reasonable to assume that NTU dumped JFMAG as they had a better looking offtake partner waiting in the wings.
“attempting to produce basically a single product into a tiny mkt that will never be more than a few ktpa and very much dominated by China.”
NTU produces an HREO carbonate that contains elements (Dy,Tb) that are critical inputs into the manufacture of high temperature permanent magnets. I agree that the market for these materials is currently very much dominated by China. However, as you well know, non PRC end users are looking to how they can gain more direct access to permanent magnet materials in order to secure their own supply chains.
Therefore we are witnessing offtake agreements being struck between companies such as thyssenkrupp and producers such as NTU and developers such as HAS.
Your opinion of the potential demand going forward for Dy is well known, as witnessed by you HC tagline “Punting Dy 2020, as smart as horseshoes 1920, just watch.” Excuse me if I place more weight on the forecasts by the likes of Roskill, Argus and Adamas, who do it for a living and put their names to their prognostications, than anonymous pundits on HotCopper, no matter how well they appear to be informed otherwise.
It just so happens in my inbox yesterday was an update from Adamas on their RE price forecasts to 2030 which forecasts the “market for magnet earth oxides to increase five fold by 2030” and that “prices (are) projected to increase at CAGR’s of 5.6% to 9.9% over the same period”
(20min delay)