Nowclear - as you say it's very likely that Centrus will get at least part of the business (the military part and possibly a bit more). Whilst Urenco could get part of the business i think the US government will feel that this UK, German & Netherlands government owned (and profitable) should be supported by their respective government owners (who also need HALEU) and they may not get much (if anything) of the business. To me the likelihood (only my thoughts) is that the US government will hedge it's bets and primarily support both Centrus and GLE; Centrus from the perspective of supplying the military and with "mature" 2nd generation technology and some sunk costs on the ACP100 and GLE as immature 3rd generation technology which would (if successful) give the US enrichment industry an edge.
As you say Centrus is currently the only licensed facility but as i understand it they still need more licenses to become a production facility (they are only currently licensed as a demonstration). The fact that Centrus have this limited license will make it easier for GLE to get a similar license but since laser enrichment is different technology to the ACP100 is will need "special" approvals. The problem for both Centrus and GLE is the licensing of storage and transport of HALEU (I know Moosey has theories about Wilmington to avoid this but GLE stated clearly in January 2021 that Paducah was the location they expected to move to; the storage/transport issues need to be resolved for Centrus in any case (and even Tenex).
IMO BTWX (the only category 1 facility in the USA) will downblend HEU to meet initial reruirements with Centrus producing a small amount from their demo facility in Piketon. The BTWX supplies will be limited (only small amounts of HEU available and will need to be replaced - only Centrus will be able to do that but will still need to go through the arduous process on getting a category 1 license; it may be easier for a production ACP100 cascade to be built at BTWX (in Raleigh, Virginia). IMO GLE will find only go for category 2 & 3 licenses (not bother with a category 1) and could potentially do it alongside the PLEF project for supplies in 2027 (or 2028) in a separate hall in Paducah and transported to a fabrication facility in Canada (Port Hope see
HERE) and/or USA (e.g Wilmington - see
HERE) or the X energy TRISO facility at Oak Ridge (see
HERE). Frankly now GLE have no GEH ownership I really don't see the need for them to be too closely aligned to GEH and should attempt to re-align themselves to other players in the fuel fabrication business (including their partner Cameco)
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