This isn't a centrus thread, but they are a Silex competitor.
(A few thing to consider with Centrus, and I haven't bothered to research much or fact check so please tell me if I'm wrong).
Yes the russian ban is on, but the Doe will probably be buying up leu asap from maybe Urenco, Gle and others. This maybe on sold to suppliers like Centrus and the money recycled back into a revolving fund for the Doe to buy more. I reckon the US is unlikely to leave Centrus swinging and will supply them either leu or waivers to get it. There probably will be a bump, maybe smoothed with a centrus waiver, but unlike reactors, enrichment capacity can be added pretty quickly (2028 for Gle?) Overall world capacity is being expanded not contracted.
The Us needs military use enriched uranium. It has to come from us origin technology. Centrus will probably get help to be the supplier. They are pretty much the only viable option. On the downside i think the Doe owns the tech not Centrus and Centrus only operates the american centrifuge on a cost plus margin basis. Yes Centrus may get to operate their expanded enrichment plant, but will they own it and take all profits?
As much as American centrifuge seems destined to have a place in this, i have yet to hear claims that it is competitive with other centrifuges on capital or operating costs. As such it may not have a huge role outside of military supply. The Us shut down their uncompetitive diffusion plants. The US in the long term may be better off if their onshore enrichment plants are economically competitive with Russian supply this time around.
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