Does the AEMO ISP actually specify a fit-for-purpose system in 2050? The primary requirement of a power grid (like NEM) is to supply the load. The last I had anything to do with this the Australian Energy Regulator (AER) set a statutory reliability requirement on NEMMCO (now AEMO) that it must meet 99.98% of load. This was calculated by stochastically estimating the 0.02%, or Unserved Energy, and was based on the forced outages rate of the 200 or so dispatchable generators connected to the NEM.
How will AEMO determine this in 2050 when for most of the time there will be no dispatchable generators connected to the NEM? How can the 2050 system described in the AEMO ISP meet this fundamental requirement when: 1. Around 90% of the generation is weather-dependent 2. Around 30% of the generation is DES and outside the control of the AEMO i.e. at the distribution level (AEMO generally only operates at the transmission level) 3. The proposed backup of 16 GW of gas-fired power, and 6 GW of long-term pumped hydro storage is meant to support a system with a projected 34 GW of average load?
It looks like there will be extensive load shedding after any long calm night and all the short-term storage has been used up.
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