You are early.
All you need to do is look at the Term price or the Spot price. Both are well below incentive price which is apparent because there's no activity in terms of mines coming back on line. The price must go up and the party hasn't started yet.
DYOR but I'm working to a 2:1 torque ratio on an incentive price of $65.00 - i.e. if the Spot goes up 25% then the junior minor should get 50%. Or, in real terms, the Spot needs to go up 50% to get to incentive price meaning the SP should at least double from here.
Then add in the Exploration Factor; the Boss EFS is based on 36Mlbs (i.e. on paper they look quite expensive in terms of $/lb in the ground) However they already have another 36lms at Goulds Dam (not included in EFS) and they're aiming to find another 190Mlbs on top of that which, in terms of comparison puts us close-ish to Paladin.
Therefore:
- SP should double just based on getting to incentive price (and God help us if it goes to $200.00)
- Then use a ratio of Paladins market cap 2.5bn vs Boss Market cap of 0.5bn to re-rate Boss once we have found and JORC'd the new pounds.
And you can see there's a long run way.
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